"The first amendment doesn't mean you have a right to express disagreement with the government!"
Find a girl who talks about you when you're not around like Kanye talks about Hitler
>kicked out of art school
>Goes on to produce enduring living art products in pure evil empire with striking visual style
>Goes on to produce enduring living art products in pure evil empire with striking visual style
https://lotide.fbxl.net/posts/16888
The above link is pretty long, but reviews a large number of recessions and shows a few commonalities. The key reason to look at it as a debt bubble is that excess money causes an expansion of credit which runs into certain industries which appear profitable to everyone at the same time, which causes massive over investment in those industries, and later on when it turns out that they can't possibly be profitable enough to justify the overinvestment, and this is the key thing, the value collapses and all of the leveraged investors lose not just the money that they have but the money that they don't have which ends up causing the downward part of the cycle, where Banks lose money on a whole bunch of loans which can cause Bank closures, it causes a reduction in the money supply, it causes tightening of credit, which overall means that there's less money moving around the economy, which leads to recession.
The key is leverage. Leverage means that with a relatively small amount of money you can create a relatively large amount of money when things are moving up, but it also means that you can destroy a relatively large amount of money with a relatively small amount of money when things are moving down.
In some ways it's like a casino. Nobody ever lost their home gambling money they could afford to lose. People lose their home when they are gambling with debt they can't afford to lose.
The above link is pretty long, but reviews a large number of recessions and shows a few commonalities. The key reason to look at it as a debt bubble is that excess money causes an expansion of credit which runs into certain industries which appear profitable to everyone at the same time, which causes massive over investment in those industries, and later on when it turns out that they can't possibly be profitable enough to justify the overinvestment, and this is the key thing, the value collapses and all of the leveraged investors lose not just the money that they have but the money that they don't have which ends up causing the downward part of the cycle, where Banks lose money on a whole bunch of loans which can cause Bank closures, it causes a reduction in the money supply, it causes tightening of credit, which overall means that there's less money moving around the economy, which leads to recession.
The key is leverage. Leverage means that with a relatively small amount of money you can create a relatively large amount of money when things are moving up, but it also means that you can destroy a relatively large amount of money with a relatively small amount of money when things are moving down.
In some ways it's like a casino. Nobody ever lost their home gambling money they could afford to lose. People lose their home when they are gambling with debt they can't afford to lose.
https://torontolife.com/real-estate/toronto-highrises/
Toronto in particular has more construction than any other city in North America, so money is being spent, but the entire real economy is affected by capital being sucked up by malinvestment and building is no different. Even a booming industry is held back because the best and brightest are being snatched up to work on useless crap because useless crap pays better in this economy.
That being said, the housing is also malinvestment. They cost so much because people can borrow so much money they can't afford to borrow and so solid purchases from good customers are being crowded out by investment from companies or individuals flush with borrowed cash. The money being added drives up prices and the prices being driven up drives further money being added.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/investors-in-ontario-real-estate-market-1.6258199
The only positive is that with mortgage rates on the rise, prices will crash. Not good for irresponsible borrowers or irresponsible lenders, but good for society because the cost of living we were ignoring because numbers were going up was having massive negative knock on effects financially, economically, and socially.
Toronto in particular has more construction than any other city in North America, so money is being spent, but the entire real economy is affected by capital being sucked up by malinvestment and building is no different. Even a booming industry is held back because the best and brightest are being snatched up to work on useless crap because useless crap pays better in this economy.
That being said, the housing is also malinvestment. They cost so much because people can borrow so much money they can't afford to borrow and so solid purchases from good customers are being crowded out by investment from companies or individuals flush with borrowed cash. The money being added drives up prices and the prices being driven up drives further money being added.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/investors-in-ontario-real-estate-market-1.6258199
The only positive is that with mortgage rates on the rise, prices will crash. Not good for irresponsible borrowers or irresponsible lenders, but good for society because the cost of living we were ignoring because numbers were going up was having massive negative knock on effects financially, economically, and socially.
There's also the issue of malinvestment caused by debt bubbles.
You *could* spend money building houses and make a linear amount of profit, or you could spend money building useless tech tech and potentially make exponential profits. Money tends to go where it'll grow, especially in an environment like the past 20 years where if it isn't continuously growing massively then you're basically losing money. People who would otherwise be risk averse have to be extremely open to high risk because that's the only way to get ahead.
Just look at the crypto market. At its peak, bitcoin alone was worth well over 2 trillion dollars, going towards 3 trillion. That's money that went into this tech tech thing that wasn't going into building new houses, new factories, or anything else productive. A lot of it went into building single purpose ASICs or video cards, and we didn't need more single purpose ASICs or video cards. Same with a lot of the overinflated tech stocks. That money ended up going into companies that just ended up getting bloated and lumbering because the money was going into a thing that went up because it went up causing it to go up.
People think money is just money, but it isn't money is a representation of the productivity of an economy. When money is spent on things that are useless, it means that the productivity is going towards useless things and isn't going towards useful things.
You *could* spend money building houses and make a linear amount of profit, or you could spend money building useless tech tech and potentially make exponential profits. Money tends to go where it'll grow, especially in an environment like the past 20 years where if it isn't continuously growing massively then you're basically losing money. People who would otherwise be risk averse have to be extremely open to high risk because that's the only way to get ahead.
Just look at the crypto market. At its peak, bitcoin alone was worth well over 2 trillion dollars, going towards 3 trillion. That's money that went into this tech tech thing that wasn't going into building new houses, new factories, or anything else productive. A lot of it went into building single purpose ASICs or video cards, and we didn't need more single purpose ASICs or video cards. Same with a lot of the overinflated tech stocks. That money ended up going into companies that just ended up getting bloated and lumbering because the money was going into a thing that went up because it went up causing it to go up.
People think money is just money, but it isn't money is a representation of the productivity of an economy. When money is spent on things that are useless, it means that the productivity is going towards useless things and isn't going towards useful things.
It's a famous saying that no matter how many women you put on the job, it takes 9 months to make a baby.
Similarly, it takes a long term to complete long term testing. It doesn't matter how many people you look at in a short term.
Similarly, it takes a long term to complete long term testing. It doesn't matter how many people you look at in a short term.
I really get a kick out of people saying the fediverse is too hard to use, coming from people who don't even run their own instance.
How many times is he going to release a song going "That's it! It's time to stop doing all the bad things! Follow me, I'm going to become something better!"?
I think it's just an annual thing now.
I think it's just an annual thing now.
I wish I could dispute that, but it seems clear that the final result is absolute totalitarian central economic planning in a way that looks like falling into a bottomless pit forever.
Getting a deal off an insanely overinflated price still isn't a deal. The average house price in Canada in 2000 was $164,000. The average house price in 2011 was closer to $340,000. The average house price in 2022 in Canada is over $800,000. That isn't up and down, it's up and up more and up more still. That's not a sane number. It's a perfect microcosm of the reality of the past 20 years. Some people's numbers went up so much that we can ignore all the people whose numbers can't.
The truth is that we've had bailout after bailout. 2001, 2003, 2008, 2020. They hit the nitrous again and again, cranked more cocaine and more heroin into the system to make the numbers rise. It made the numbers rise, but it isn't healthy. Instead of avoiding the withdrawl, we ought to just stop the constant cocaine and heroin and accept the pain so we can get back to being healthy.
Homeless populations are at all time highs. Drug deaths are at all time highs. Gangs infest even small towns. Yeah, there are big winners, but there's a lot of people realizing they can't even play.
The rate hikes and QT are a good start, and I hope they continue. They're going to have to be paired with government policy that stops selling our kids kids into slavery and commits to balanced budgets. Households need to deleverage. Governments need to deleverage. Investors need to deleverage. Money isn't the thing we're trying to achieve, it's what you can do with the money, and the malinvestment caused by excess debt means real resources that could be put towards real productivity are instead being spent on frivolousness.
The truth is that we've had bailout after bailout. 2001, 2003, 2008, 2020. They hit the nitrous again and again, cranked more cocaine and more heroin into the system to make the numbers rise. It made the numbers rise, but it isn't healthy. Instead of avoiding the withdrawl, we ought to just stop the constant cocaine and heroin and accept the pain so we can get back to being healthy.
Homeless populations are at all time highs. Drug deaths are at all time highs. Gangs infest even small towns. Yeah, there are big winners, but there's a lot of people realizing they can't even play.
The rate hikes and QT are a good start, and I hope they continue. They're going to have to be paired with government policy that stops selling our kids kids into slavery and commits to balanced budgets. Households need to deleverage. Governments need to deleverage. Investors need to deleverage. Money isn't the thing we're trying to achieve, it's what you can do with the money, and the malinvestment caused by excess debt means real resources that could be put towards real productivity are instead being spent on frivolousness.
I doubt the millennials will be any different either. Probably not Gen Z either. It won't be until the current generations of adults have broken everything so badly there's no can left to kick that some poor bastards in the future will have to actually do the right thing.
"Look at that ass. That's an ass you get from reaping souls all day. You can't buy an ass like that."
I'd argue the past 20 years were great depression levels of bad for main street anyway, all while we turn into a feudal society as the megacorps we saved just used our own money to snatch up all the assets normal people who aren't immortal soulless legal constructs need to not die.
I just think about what's happened to home prices, what's happened to rents, what's happened to energy, and importantly what hasn't happened to wages. It's been the greatest wealth transfer in the history of the world, and it's created several of the richest people in the history of the world.
I understand why we might not want to feel the pain, but every time we take that heroin, it's one more step away from ever going straight.
I just think about what's happened to home prices, what's happened to rents, what's happened to energy, and importantly what hasn't happened to wages. It's been the greatest wealth transfer in the history of the world, and it's created several of the richest people in the history of the world.
I understand why we might not want to feel the pain, but every time we take that heroin, it's one more step away from ever going straight.
I'd personally have preferred we let the companies that made unreasonable risks just fail completely. It would have hurt a lot more in the short term, but the idea that megacorps need to be bailed out is a great way to make sure we have nothing but megacorps :(
"Hmmm. Sociopaths go around solving everyone's problems for them because another outpost needs your help..."
The only BSD machine I've got is my firewall, which happens to run freebsd.
I intended to run my webservers on openbsd, but then I remembered I don't know anything about bsd and if I was going to actually get anything running I should choose a platform that's more common.
I intended to run my webservers on openbsd, but then I remembered I don't know anything about bsd and if I was going to actually get anything running I should choose a platform that's more common.