I tend to agree. There's still way too much air in a lot of stocks.
I think it's still up like double compared to 2019, and nobody with half a brain would say we're in better economic shape today than pre-pandemic.
One of the biggest losers yesterday was a hardware store chain whose stock lost 50% of its value -- and was still at a PE of 40!
I think it's still up like double compared to 2019, and nobody with half a brain would say we're in better economic shape today than pre-pandemic.
One of the biggest losers yesterday was a hardware store chain whose stock lost 50% of its value -- and was still at a PE of 40!
Everyone should have known the market was going to have a big dip for one reason or another in 2025 and positioned themselves appropriately.
But we had a similar big dip in 2018 (the year saw the market down 20%) for many of the same reasons we're seeing today, followed by the best stock market increase of all time in 2019 (up nearly 30%). I don't think that's going to happen here, but it's just a reminder not to get too concerned about day to day volatility.
Honestly, for the past couple years, almost all positive movement in the stock market has been in 7 stocks -- that's not healthy, and even if the reason for the correction isn't great, it's still just a fairly normal correction in a market that's massively overvalued. People are laughing at Tesla stock, but it's back where it was in April of 2024 after it nearly doubled for no good reason.
Many analysts were predicting a big downward move regardless of who was in the Whitehouse in 2025, and so the smart money was already getting out of risk on assets. Berkshire Hathaway for example spent much of last year on an unprecedented selling spree, getting out of a lot of positions to be in cash. The key for people who care about what the market did should have been capital preservation for 2025 -- but some people couldn't resist just staying at the trough. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
I made a big move into risk-off assets around the end of 2023, and honestly I've been consistently going up regardless. Pretty easy when the fed pays 5% to park your money in a money market fund. Better yet, it's highly liquid where it is, so if the market dumps 20% and we enter a recession, I can quickly rotate into risk-on.
I also went big into infrastructure because it's a strong asymmetric trade -- power companies win if AI keeps booming because AI uses tons of power, but power companies also win if we go into recession (which is still a high likelihood for 2025) because unlike most businesses people need to keep paying their power bills (at least for a while) even when times are tough.
But we had a similar big dip in 2018 (the year saw the market down 20%) for many of the same reasons we're seeing today, followed by the best stock market increase of all time in 2019 (up nearly 30%). I don't think that's going to happen here, but it's just a reminder not to get too concerned about day to day volatility.
Honestly, for the past couple years, almost all positive movement in the stock market has been in 7 stocks -- that's not healthy, and even if the reason for the correction isn't great, it's still just a fairly normal correction in a market that's massively overvalued. People are laughing at Tesla stock, but it's back where it was in April of 2024 after it nearly doubled for no good reason.
Many analysts were predicting a big downward move regardless of who was in the Whitehouse in 2025, and so the smart money was already getting out of risk on assets. Berkshire Hathaway for example spent much of last year on an unprecedented selling spree, getting out of a lot of positions to be in cash. The key for people who care about what the market did should have been capital preservation for 2025 -- but some people couldn't resist just staying at the trough. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
I made a big move into risk-off assets around the end of 2023, and honestly I've been consistently going up regardless. Pretty easy when the fed pays 5% to park your money in a money market fund. Better yet, it's highly liquid where it is, so if the market dumps 20% and we enter a recession, I can quickly rotate into risk-on.
I also went big into infrastructure because it's a strong asymmetric trade -- power companies win if AI keeps booming because AI uses tons of power, but power companies also win if we go into recession (which is still a high likelihood for 2025) because unlike most businesses people need to keep paying their power bills (at least for a while) even when times are tough.
Whenever I hear about DMSO I think about this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPM7I49fj8
Man, rip spoony.... and like 98% of entertainment. Pretty much everything ended after 2016.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPM7I49fj8
Man, rip spoony.... and like 98% of entertainment. Pretty much everything ended after 2016.
I'm working on my next book (maybe two books, there's a lot of material here in two quite different forms) at the moment. One of the key themes in the books surrounds highly integrated neural implants with full access to AI and neural interfaces.
When I wrote about the fire hose of the Internet through the implant, I was thinking about my experiences with VR. VR is immersive, but it actually isn't addictive like phones, because it's so all-encompassing.
It's like the difference between taking a quick drag off a cigarette, or having to sit down for an hour to smoke a full length cigar. The former is quick and intense, the latter takes time, it's an investment. You're not smoking a full length cigar in between downtime at work. For that reason, it's more difficult to get addicted to cigars because it's inherently less habit forming even though the amount of nicotine is far more intense.
Some of the characters actually become addicted to aspects of the interface, but it's not the all-immersive Internet that requires you to make a deep investment to get the full benefit. It's parts that are quick and easy but give a hit of good feelings.
I did the math last night, and at the rate I'm planning to go I'm probably 24 weeks away from publishing day (at least for book 1), but at the rate I'm actually going I'm probably closer to 10-14 weeks away.
I never really cared if The Graysonian Ethic was something special for public consumption since it was never intended primarily for the public -- it was a letter to my son that made sense to publish for practical reasons. Future Sepsis, on the other hand, I do think it's something special. I'm hoping people come away from it changed. I'm certainly coming away from writing it changed.
On that note, it makes me wonder why more writers aren't actually deep wellsprings of wisdom in person. How can you spend all this time creating something so deep and not become deeper in person?
I have this idea, that there's a sort of empathy you can have for non anthropomorphic things -- you can start to think like a machine and earn machine empathy, you can start to think like an ideology or philosophy and earn empathy for those things. To embody something like that properly you have to live in its head. How many writers actually try to do that, and how many just write their own extremely personal story by putting a piece of themselves into the machine instead of making the machine a part of themselves? (But I might just be sniffing my own farts at that point lol)
I'll tell you one thing -- doing things like that doesn't result in a person being able to suddenly map themselves into whatever pablum they want to stick into an Oscar speech to make themselves look good. The world isn't so simple that you just need to follow the "correct" ideology and everything will turn out ok. It's like, "You live in other worlds for a living and all you could come up with is 'we need to follow my favorite ideology'? That's it?"
When I wrote about the fire hose of the Internet through the implant, I was thinking about my experiences with VR. VR is immersive, but it actually isn't addictive like phones, because it's so all-encompassing.
It's like the difference between taking a quick drag off a cigarette, or having to sit down for an hour to smoke a full length cigar. The former is quick and intense, the latter takes time, it's an investment. You're not smoking a full length cigar in between downtime at work. For that reason, it's more difficult to get addicted to cigars because it's inherently less habit forming even though the amount of nicotine is far more intense.
Some of the characters actually become addicted to aspects of the interface, but it's not the all-immersive Internet that requires you to make a deep investment to get the full benefit. It's parts that are quick and easy but give a hit of good feelings.
I did the math last night, and at the rate I'm planning to go I'm probably 24 weeks away from publishing day (at least for book 1), but at the rate I'm actually going I'm probably closer to 10-14 weeks away.
I never really cared if The Graysonian Ethic was something special for public consumption since it was never intended primarily for the public -- it was a letter to my son that made sense to publish for practical reasons. Future Sepsis, on the other hand, I do think it's something special. I'm hoping people come away from it changed. I'm certainly coming away from writing it changed.
On that note, it makes me wonder why more writers aren't actually deep wellsprings of wisdom in person. How can you spend all this time creating something so deep and not become deeper in person?
I have this idea, that there's a sort of empathy you can have for non anthropomorphic things -- you can start to think like a machine and earn machine empathy, you can start to think like an ideology or philosophy and earn empathy for those things. To embody something like that properly you have to live in its head. How many writers actually try to do that, and how many just write their own extremely personal story by putting a piece of themselves into the machine instead of making the machine a part of themselves? (But I might just be sniffing my own farts at that point lol)
I'll tell you one thing -- doing things like that doesn't result in a person being able to suddenly map themselves into whatever pablum they want to stick into an Oscar speech to make themselves look good. The world isn't so simple that you just need to follow the "correct" ideology and everything will turn out ok. It's like, "You live in other worlds for a living and all you could come up with is 'we need to follow my favorite ideology'? That's it?"
https://www.junonews.com/p/canadian-freedom-convoy-donations
This is great news. I hope they give the piece of shit the chair.
This is great news. I hope they give the piece of shit the chair.
I do have some level of faith myself. I look at the US election and how much they astroturfed down there, and the outcome.
But it shouldn't even be a question. I mean, even if you're a leftist -- he's a fuckin bank executive hedge fund manager!
But it shouldn't even be a question. I mean, even if you're a leftist -- he's a fuckin bank executive hedge fund manager!
If Carney wins, I think it's probably time to wind down democracy because Canadians just aren't suited to making decisions.
This all sounds like my Freedom 85 retirement plan.
(Work to 85 then blow it all on cocaine and hookers)
(Work to 85 then blow it all on cocaine and hookers)
If they have to kill every man, woman, and child in the EU, they will win this trade war!!!
(I mean, that seems to be how my retarded country is doing things)
(I mean, that seems to be how my retarded country is doing things)
Lol
A million hk dollars, equivalent to 180,000 Canadian dollars, equivalent to 125,000 US dollars
This deal is getting worse all the time!
A million hk dollars, equivalent to 180,000 Canadian dollars, equivalent to 125,000 US dollars
This deal is getting worse all the time!
Box by box, my cluster is getting more absurd. I've still got one more machine to add, but old Atom boxes do this strange thing where they support legacy booting and EFI 32-bit even though they're 64-bit machines.
What will I do with all these boxes? Who knows?
One thing I want to play with is software defined radio, we'll see if the overwhelming might of my Intel Atoms are enough to stream audio.
What will I do with all these boxes? Who knows?
One thing I want to play with is software defined radio, we'll see if the overwhelming might of my Intel Atoms are enough to stream audio.
The moment we started being told to work for the ultimate benefit of "the economy" and stopped working for the ultimate benefit of our families, that's the moment the memetic black death took deep root.
It sounds like a funny joke or a piece of histrionic nonsense, but the postmodern extinction event is on track to be worse than the black death. Some populations are on track to effectively die out, and even among the ones who aren't there's going to be half the individuals removed from the gene pool moving forward (I think it's presently half of women and three quarters of men under 40 don't have offspring)
So given all this, it's the job of mothers who keep the home (and who should be supported in that endeavor) and the fathers who will build what comes next through their children to make the right choices to ensure their kids can take hold of what's coming. Parents are building the ark that will carry the next generations through this flood, even as people mock them and call them crazy or stupid or evil for doing so.
One question is: Will these parents pass on the memetic black death they barely survived, or will they pass on something different, something intentionally built to last?
It sounds like a funny joke or a piece of histrionic nonsense, but the postmodern extinction event is on track to be worse than the black death. Some populations are on track to effectively die out, and even among the ones who aren't there's going to be half the individuals removed from the gene pool moving forward (I think it's presently half of women and three quarters of men under 40 don't have offspring)
So given all this, it's the job of mothers who keep the home (and who should be supported in that endeavor) and the fathers who will build what comes next through their children to make the right choices to ensure their kids can take hold of what's coming. Parents are building the ark that will carry the next generations through this flood, even as people mock them and call them crazy or stupid or evil for doing so.
One question is: Will these parents pass on the memetic black death they barely survived, or will they pass on something different, something intentionally built to last?
It's funny watching these morons screaming "against" fascism while living in European fascism.
Anime and video game Localization and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.