That's definitely what happened after world war 1 and world war II. One thing that was a little bit different at those times is the country wasn't nearly as entwined in the entire world as it is today. That lack of investment in productive infrastructure would really bite hard in a world war 3 scenario. Meanwhile, China would likely be on the other side of the world war 3 scenario and they manufacture all of our stuff! (A long with Taiwan, who they'd either take immediately or bomb into the stone age)
I think that it's inevitable that that will happen, it's just a matter of when and how.
What's going to end up happening is prices will continue to slowly rise and previously uneconomical sources of oil will become economical, leading to much higher prices for oil but not an immediately reduced supply.
One thing that I think the market distortions we're seeing are going to cause is a premature lack of supply because nobody is investing in those critical future supplies. We are likely going to end up having to have some kind of big crisis and that will be the impetus to restore investment, and the oil companies are going to make money absolutely hand over fist for a while.
What's going to end up happening is prices will continue to slowly rise and previously uneconomical sources of oil will become economical, leading to much higher prices for oil but not an immediately reduced supply.
One thing that I think the market distortions we're seeing are going to cause is a premature lack of supply because nobody is investing in those critical future supplies. We are likely going to end up having to have some kind of big crisis and that will be the impetus to restore investment, and the oil companies are going to make money absolutely hand over fist for a while.
I tend to agree that part of the problem is the way that the word liberal has been co-opted by people who are clearly not liberal.
You have authoritarians going around calling themselves liberals, which is just wrong.
You have authoritarians going around calling themselves liberals, which is just wrong.
GameStop has always been funny because anyone who actually knows anything about video games knows that video game stores are basically not even a thing for most people anymore. Like, I have a game collection of thousands of games and I think I have stood in a game store maybe five times in the last 15 years? You can either buy it through online game stores, or you can get it through amazon, but there's also options like your local Walmart or for console games even pawn shops. There's so many options to buy your games from, and most video game stores don't really give you any kind of reason to buy from them.
Even people have worked at GameStop can tell you stories, and none of those stories are of a healthy company with good margins and lots of revenue.
Even people have worked at GameStop can tell you stories, and none of those stories are of a healthy company with good margins and lots of revenue.
The powers but that be think that they can continue doing this forever, but the quality of life in the west is becoming so poor we are already starting to see migrants go back to where they came from because it turns out life isn't actually any better in the West.
That process is just starting now, but I strongly suspect it's going to be happening more and more.
That process is just starting now, but I strongly suspect it's going to be happening more and more.
The darkest Day in Canadian history.
I remember passing by the 8-ft tall sign that said "the land of rape and honey" and it brought me so much joy. But now, it's gone probably forever.
Truly dark days.
I remember passing by the 8-ft tall sign that said "the land of rape and honey" and it brought me so much joy. But now, it's gone probably forever.
Truly dark days.
I understand why he did it, but what I don't understand is why he made this the base of operations?
An important thing to keep in mind is 1.4 degrees Celsius per century.
That is the rate they claim climate is changing at.
Once you remember that, then the high pressure used car salesman tactics become clear. A particularly warm year becomes a rallying cry that the world is going to end right now so we need to kill billions of people with similarly histrionic proposals. On the other hand, a particularly cold year is said to not represent anything because "the weather is not the climate".
Use of carbon as an energy source can't last forever regardless of climate change. There's only so much out there at any rate.
That said, one of the problems that the central planners have is that they only look at one variable at one time.
Let's say that you're paying attention to climate change, but what happens if you completely destroy your productive capacity as we have, but countries that don't really care about the environment like Russia and China continue to produce? Well, presumably your green society gets rolled over, and all your trees are chopped down for fuel, all your Meadows contain new factories. The history books write of your folly.
Let's say you actually do try to push billions of people to die. Most people aren't willing to put up with that. If you're lucky that will mean a major Democratic shift towards anyone who isn't following your agenda, if you're unlucky it'll mean a coup where anyone promoting your green agenda becomes worm food, and the new regime absolutely refuses to follow anything like your genocidal green agenda. The history books write of your folly.
Let's say you successfully push billions to die. Well the first in line would be people who agree with you that the earth needs fewer people. People who don't agree with you will have plenty of kids, and eventually the Earth is filled with people who disagree with you and your ideology fades into Oblivion. The history books write of your folly.
I certainly came to the same conclusion that if we wanted to immediately transition everything over to Green energy that you would need a lot fewer people on earth, but mu -- the question is wrong.
That is the rate they claim climate is changing at.
Once you remember that, then the high pressure used car salesman tactics become clear. A particularly warm year becomes a rallying cry that the world is going to end right now so we need to kill billions of people with similarly histrionic proposals. On the other hand, a particularly cold year is said to not represent anything because "the weather is not the climate".
Use of carbon as an energy source can't last forever regardless of climate change. There's only so much out there at any rate.
That said, one of the problems that the central planners have is that they only look at one variable at one time.
Let's say that you're paying attention to climate change, but what happens if you completely destroy your productive capacity as we have, but countries that don't really care about the environment like Russia and China continue to produce? Well, presumably your green society gets rolled over, and all your trees are chopped down for fuel, all your Meadows contain new factories. The history books write of your folly.
Let's say you actually do try to push billions of people to die. Most people aren't willing to put up with that. If you're lucky that will mean a major Democratic shift towards anyone who isn't following your agenda, if you're unlucky it'll mean a coup where anyone promoting your green agenda becomes worm food, and the new regime absolutely refuses to follow anything like your genocidal green agenda. The history books write of your folly.
Let's say you successfully push billions to die. Well the first in line would be people who agree with you that the earth needs fewer people. People who don't agree with you will have plenty of kids, and eventually the Earth is filled with people who disagree with you and your ideology fades into Oblivion. The history books write of your folly.
I certainly came to the same conclusion that if we wanted to immediately transition everything over to Green energy that you would need a lot fewer people on earth, but mu -- the question is wrong.
There's a bunch of other stuff that'll happen on the trouble too.
In 2008, the federal debt had increased from 4 trillion in 2000 to 8 trillion in 2008, but gdp was 14 trillion dollars. Today, debt is 32 trillion, but the GDP is only 27 trillion, and besides that, GDP(which we denote as Y) is divided into four components(Components of GDP). Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government purchases (G), and Net exports (NX).
Y = C + I + G + NX.
So there's some problems as a result of this.
Consumption is in trouble with households at record levels of debt, credit cards making up 1.1 trillion dollars for the first time ever.
Investment in productive assets has been in trouble domestically, with a continuous outflow of capital to other countries.
Government debt is at historical highs, and federal spending as a % of GDP is closer to where it was after the 2008 financial crisis than before it, so there's much less room to increase government in response to a recession.
The trade deficit has been so bad for so long people don't even pay attention to it, but it does matter.
This all leaves a lot fewer potential ways out of a recession than in the past, and they're already leaning on the levers they might rely on to get out of one..
It's making numbers look good in the short term, but I suspect it'll be like if you dip into your emergency rations before there's a famine -- eventually the famine comes and you have no food.
In 2008, the federal debt had increased from 4 trillion in 2000 to 8 trillion in 2008, but gdp was 14 trillion dollars. Today, debt is 32 trillion, but the GDP is only 27 trillion, and besides that, GDP(which we denote as Y) is divided into four components(Components of GDP). Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government purchases (G), and Net exports (NX).
Y = C + I + G + NX.
So there's some problems as a result of this.
Consumption is in trouble with households at record levels of debt, credit cards making up 1.1 trillion dollars for the first time ever.
Investment in productive assets has been in trouble domestically, with a continuous outflow of capital to other countries.
Government debt is at historical highs, and federal spending as a % of GDP is closer to where it was after the 2008 financial crisis than before it, so there's much less room to increase government in response to a recession.
The trade deficit has been so bad for so long people don't even pay attention to it, but it does matter.
This all leaves a lot fewer potential ways out of a recession than in the past, and they're already leaning on the levers they might rely on to get out of one..
It's making numbers look good in the short term, but I suspect it'll be like if you dip into your emergency rations before there's a famine -- eventually the famine comes and you have no food.
"Look here folks, I'm not Dylan Mulvaney. That's a fact, and facts don't care about your feelings. I can't be Dylan Mulvaney because I'm already Brett Cooper, and I'm playing the beautiful Snow White in a new show on DailyWire Plus"
Some people think that Microsoft is going back to a major windows release every 3 years. Windows 11 was in 2021, Windows 12 could be this year, and so following this schedule, I'd expect Windows 2027 in 2027.
One big thing is that everyone is focused on AI and LLMs as if they're doing something novel, but the reality is that there were already bad actors getting their fingers into sites like these. If you're trying to swing an election and you're either a nation-state or a political organization or even an NGO, it's really easy and surprisingly cheap to hire a bunch of people to say whatever needs to be said, and then you aren't using an AI, you're using a bunch of actual human beings to write and respond, and it's got all the same potentials but with the additional danger of an actual human intellect behind the keyboard on the other side.
In general, it's that kind of power that's most dangerous, whether it's on social media or if it's in proprietary software. It's easy when you have a lot of money to throw it at a problem, because while everyone else has to fight in their spare time and keep a roof over their head and food on the table separately from that, minions fight as their day job, that's how they keep a roof over their head and food on their table.
In general, it's that kind of power that's most dangerous, whether it's on social media or if it's in proprietary software. It's easy when you have a lot of money to throw it at a problem, because while everyone else has to fight in their spare time and keep a roof over their head and food on the table separately from that, minions fight as their day job, that's how they keep a roof over their head and food on their table.
A week or two ago I was discussing with somebody the fact that law doesn't follow the ideal political arguments, but arguments that have a chance of winning.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/09/hunter-biden-gun-charges-00157160
Hunter Bidens lawyers chose to invoke the second amendment to try to get a law preventing drug users from buying guns nullified. One might criticize him for using an amendment his political faction would like to see repealed.
But the reality is, it's his lawyers job to win cases, not elections. If he wins on constitutional grounds, he wins. It doesn't matter if his faction agrees with it or not, that's the rules.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/09/hunter-biden-gun-charges-00157160
Hunter Bidens lawyers chose to invoke the second amendment to try to get a law preventing drug users from buying guns nullified. One might criticize him for using an amendment his political faction would like to see repealed.
But the reality is, it's his lawyers job to win cases, not elections. If he wins on constitutional grounds, he wins. It doesn't matter if his faction agrees with it or not, that's the rules.
"This funeral stopped the further growth of one thing—the petition to the governor for Injun Joe’s pardon. The petition had been largely signed; many tearful and eloquent meetings had been held, and a committee of sappy women been appointed to go in deep mourning and wail around the governor, and implore him to be a merciful ass and trample his duty under foot. Injun Joe was believed to have killed five citizens of the village, but what of that? If he had been Satan himself there would have been plenty of weaklings ready to scribble their names to a pardon-petition, and drip a tear on it from their permanently impaired and leaky water-works." - The Adventures of Tom Sawyer, Mark Twain
Given the past few years, I figured some of you might appreciate this paragraph.
Given the past few years, I figured some of you might appreciate this paragraph.
Mushoku Tensei Turning Point 3
Mushoku Tensei had its episode "Turning Point 3" today.
There are a lot of interesting things in it, but one notable thing to me is that contrasting to the first turning point, where he was caught up in the teleportation incident, or the second turning point, where Orsted killed him.
The third turning point is Rudeus choosing to go help his parents. The key difference is that he had the first two turning points thrust upon him (right through his chest in the second), whereas the third was his choice, and not only did he have the option not to go, many things indicated that he didn't need to go -- The Man God Hitogami told him not to go, and Elinalise said she'd go if he didn't. Yes, his little sister wanted him to go, but compared to a God, turning down a little girl really wouldn't be that big of a deal.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the three turning points have been at representative times in his life -- first at the onset of puberty, second at an age representing adulthood in the new world, and now once he's an established adult who owns a home, is married, and has a child incoming.
I also don't think it's an accident that the people he's going off to help are his parents. It's a representation of his coming into his own as an adult. He might never have been a child who needed his parents to protect him, but his parents nonetheless were capable enough to handle things on their own and didn't need their child to step in. Now he's an adult and he'll be contributing to helping his father and his mother.
There are a lot of interesting things in it, but one notable thing to me is that contrasting to the first turning point, where he was caught up in the teleportation incident, or the second turning point, where Orsted killed him.
The third turning point is Rudeus choosing to go help his parents. The key difference is that he had the first two turning points thrust upon him (right through his chest in the second), whereas the third was his choice, and not only did he have the option not to go, many things indicated that he didn't need to go -- The Man God Hitogami told him not to go, and Elinalise said she'd go if he didn't. Yes, his little sister wanted him to go, but compared to a God, turning down a little girl really wouldn't be that big of a deal.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the three turning points have been at representative times in his life -- first at the onset of puberty, second at an age representing adulthood in the new world, and now once he's an established adult who owns a home, is married, and has a child incoming.
I also don't think it's an accident that the people he's going off to help are his parents. It's a representation of his coming into his own as an adult. He might never have been a child who needed his parents to protect him, but his parents nonetheless were capable enough to handle things on their own and didn't need their child to step in. Now he's an adult and he'll be contributing to helping his father and his mother.
"I built a giant vacuum cleaner to permanently modify the atmosphere"
Huh. Do you live on an island with a mountain shaped like a skull?
Huh. Do you live on an island with a mountain shaped like a skull?