@foofighter8291 At the outset the different vaccines don't have a 100% success rate. I think I was looking at the Johnson & Johnson vaccine that has a 60% reduction in the likelihood that you'll get COVID, and an 85% reduction in the likelihood that you'll be hospitalized if you do. That still means there's a 40% chance of getting it and a 15% chance of being hospitalized.
The key here is the number of people infected by an infected person. In terms of the disease modelling, they look at the number of people who will be infected by an infected person. If the number is above a certain point, then the disease will spread out of control if it isn't managed. If the number is below a certain point, then the virus will eventually go extinct because it can't infect enough people relative to the number of people who recover or die.
It's similar to the offspring of humans. Let's say you have a group of 50 males and 50 females, and they group together into couples and have one kid. The next generation will be 50 people, and if they're separated roughly equally then you'll have 25 males and 25 females. If the couples had two kids, then the next generation would be 100 people, 50 males and 50 females. If the couples had three kids, then the next generation would be 150 people, 75 males and 75 females.
If you can reduce the population's chance of getting the disease by 60%, then you can easily take a number that was above the threshold of spreading out of control and bring it below that point, so the virus will eventually burn itself out. It isn't necessarily as much about protecting individuals as it is about protecting the population.
The vaccine doesn't need to be 100% effective to completely wipe out the virus. The polio vaccine was found in the lab to be about 65%-80% effective, and today polio cases worldwide have dropped 99% and it's been effectively wiped out in the developed world.
The key here is the number of people infected by an infected person. In terms of the disease modelling, they look at the number of people who will be infected by an infected person. If the number is above a certain point, then the disease will spread out of control if it isn't managed. If the number is below a certain point, then the virus will eventually go extinct because it can't infect enough people relative to the number of people who recover or die.
It's similar to the offspring of humans. Let's say you have a group of 50 males and 50 females, and they group together into couples and have one kid. The next generation will be 50 people, and if they're separated roughly equally then you'll have 25 males and 25 females. If the couples had two kids, then the next generation would be 100 people, 50 males and 50 females. If the couples had three kids, then the next generation would be 150 people, 75 males and 75 females.
If you can reduce the population's chance of getting the disease by 60%, then you can easily take a number that was above the threshold of spreading out of control and bring it below that point, so the virus will eventually burn itself out. It isn't necessarily as much about protecting individuals as it is about protecting the population.
The vaccine doesn't need to be 100% effective to completely wipe out the virus. The polio vaccine was found in the lab to be about 65%-80% effective, and today polio cases worldwide have dropped 99% and it's been effectively wiped out in the developed world.
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