There's a lot of folks who think that automation is going to end all jobs, it's usually people who don't actually realize how much is involved with automating a job. "Behold! We have eliminated an operator! All it took was a small army of engineers, electricians, millwrights, instrument technicians, automation specialists, and dozens of supply chains are absolutely have to remain open for it all to keep working!"
You can stand there showing the "totally autonomous" thing when the investors, politicians, and media are around to sell the thing, but once those guys are ushered away the reality sets in of just how much manpower it takes to keep an unmanned thing running.
You can stand there showing the "totally autonomous" thing when the investors, politicians, and media are around to sell the thing, but once those guys are ushered away the reality sets in of just how much manpower it takes to keep an unmanned thing running.
I'm not saying it as a cope, I'm saying it as a shutdown of a basic misunderstanding of such technology.
Especially happens when you start dealing with programmers who think that because something is easy on their screen it's easy in real life.
I have spent more than my share of time chasing the promises of some salesman who says "all you need to do is put in a hundred billion hours giving us every single little piece of data on a thing and we'll be able to magically do everyone's job for them" just to have it not work because reality is more complicated than a computer program, and the human brain, even a dumb human brain, does a lot more than we give it credit for.
You have absolutely no idea how much time and effort is wasted on the false promises of high technology. The problem is eventually someone somewhere actually has to do something, and when rubber meets road, all the promises actually have to turn out to be true, and that's extremely rare.
Especially happens when you start dealing with programmers who think that because something is easy on their screen it's easy in real life.
I have spent more than my share of time chasing the promises of some salesman who says "all you need to do is put in a hundred billion hours giving us every single little piece of data on a thing and we'll be able to magically do everyone's job for them" just to have it not work because reality is more complicated than a computer program, and the human brain, even a dumb human brain, does a lot more than we give it credit for.
You have absolutely no idea how much time and effort is wasted on the false promises of high technology. The problem is eventually someone somewhere actually has to do something, and when rubber meets road, all the promises actually have to turn out to be true, and that's extremely rare.
There's been quite a few industrial revolutions since the first one. Many people believe we are in the fourth one.
The lesson we should have learned by now is that many promises of industrial revolutions are tempered by reality and practicality. It turns out that radium water was never going to make you healthier. You shouldn't fill your house with asbestos. You shouldn't have the kids roll in ddt. Most people shouldn't own a plane and if they do they won't keep it in their garage. There are industrial robots but other than roombas personal robots aren't even a pipe dream. Electrification did not bring enlightenment to the masses. Television didn't make everyone incredibly educated. The airplane did not end all war. The invention of atomic energy did not end all energy problems on earth. By default phone calls are voice only. Brutalist buildings didn't create utopian communities in the hallways.
I could go on forever. Reality doesn't work this way. Will certain jobs go away? Of course. I'm not sure there'll still be human cashiers in most stores by the time I die. I'm pretty sure there'll be human security guards though. Human cops, human therapists, human entertainers, and plenty of African slaves harvesting our cocoa.
In fact, it western society continues it's suicide, legal slavery is likely to return in Asia and Africa in the next century since abhoring slavery is a western value imposed upon the rest of the world.
The lesson we should have learned by now is that many promises of industrial revolutions are tempered by reality and practicality. It turns out that radium water was never going to make you healthier. You shouldn't fill your house with asbestos. You shouldn't have the kids roll in ddt. Most people shouldn't own a plane and if they do they won't keep it in their garage. There are industrial robots but other than roombas personal robots aren't even a pipe dream. Electrification did not bring enlightenment to the masses. Television didn't make everyone incredibly educated. The airplane did not end all war. The invention of atomic energy did not end all energy problems on earth. By default phone calls are voice only. Brutalist buildings didn't create utopian communities in the hallways.
I could go on forever. Reality doesn't work this way. Will certain jobs go away? Of course. I'm not sure there'll still be human cashiers in most stores by the time I die. I'm pretty sure there'll be human security guards though. Human cops, human therapists, human entertainers, and plenty of African slaves harvesting our cocoa.
In fact, it western society continues it's suicide, legal slavery is likely to return in Asia and Africa in the next century since abhoring slavery is a western value imposed upon the rest of the world.
- replies
- 1
- announces
- 0
- likes
- 0
In between my prediction of legalized slavery and your prediction of the end of all work, bet mine happens first.
If the west continues its cultural suicide, its political power will be so little that they won't even bother lying anymore. It's only because the west finds slavery distasteful and was incredibly powerful that it's illegal everywhere.