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One historian I like following on youtube has said we're right on the verge of a major revolutionary event based on models which correctly predicted some major events during the time spans they occurred.

Not all revolutions are the same. Sometimes it's like the bronze age collapse where people collectively just said "fuck this shit" and went off to live relatively independently. Other times it's an authoritarian takes power (as happened when the roman republic became the roman Empire), and yet other times it's a bloody revolution like the French revolution or the Russian revolution.

It's really a scary roulette wheel. The chances of coming out of an era like this one with a new golden age of prosperity and freedom are infinitesimal.

I don't know if I've read that article before, I but I like it and tend to agree with it.

One thing I've thought about a lot is that the rise of the enlightenment also came about because of an increase in sobriety. Discourse was moving out of the bars and into the coffee houses and that represented a step change in the character of thought.

I think the numbers show we're in an age of unprecedented chemical sobriety. People are struggling to make ends meet so getting drunk or high every day just isn't an option for many people. However; if you look at television and our current social media as intellectual intoxicants, we're still hammered all day every day. Establishment media is designed specifically to fog your vision and your thoughts and makes you surly because it makes them money and gives them power.

The independent media isn't always perfect, there's lots of noise to the signal, but the signal is there and it isn't there if you're only talking to the establishment.