Seems to me like you're slicing a tiny minority view here. The majority consensus is that when the fed pivots US equities will shoot to the moon, and gold has been the red headed stepchild forever and realistically if the fed pivots I'd expect a lot of the money in it would shoot back into cryptos.
In the long terms, I think China has peaked or is close to it, but the US has a lot of room to grow in spite of its headwinds. If the fed keeps lowering rates, I'll wait until a recession is officially called and rush a bunch into US equities because by that point we're probably close to the bottom. Not all-in, but enough to see a nice gain over the next 15 years or so.
But that's just me.
In the long terms, I think China has peaked or is close to it, but the US has a lot of room to grow in spite of its headwinds. If the fed keeps lowering rates, I'll wait until a recession is officially called and rush a bunch into US equities because by that point we're probably close to the bottom. Not all-in, but enough to see a nice gain over the next 15 years or so.
But that's just me.
But it's a contrarian view to another contrarian view.
The Fed will pivot once the numbers say the US economy appears to be in trouble. People think that'll happen because it's been the way things have worked since the Greenspan put back in the 1990s. It happened in the 1990s, it happened in 2001, it happened in 2008, it even happened during the taper tantrums of 2013 and the other taper tantrum of 2018, as well as the covid panic of 2020. Most investors are counting on it, which is why things aren't even more dramatically hurt than they have been.
Unemployment is a lagging indicator. By the time it's fully affected, the rest of the economy will also be a flaming dumpster fire and the fed will already be preparing to take extraordinary measures.
The Fed will pivot once the numbers say the US economy appears to be in trouble. People think that'll happen because it's been the way things have worked since the Greenspan put back in the 1990s. It happened in the 1990s, it happened in 2001, it happened in 2008, it even happened during the taper tantrums of 2013 and the other taper tantrum of 2018, as well as the covid panic of 2020. Most investors are counting on it, which is why things aren't even more dramatically hurt than they have been.
Unemployment is a lagging indicator. By the time it's fully affected, the rest of the economy will also be a flaming dumpster fire and the fed will already be preparing to take extraordinary measures.
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