For people wondering what "sigmoidal" means, it refers to a trend that takes an S-curve.
Once I understood that detail, it seems self-evidently true. When you build one factory, your output goes up maybe 100 times, but your second factory only doubles your production. Eventually you run out of factories to build and there's no more growth to be had.
Klaus Schwab is a scary guy for many reasons, but his concept of there being multiple industrial revolutions makes a lot of sense, and each one has a similar profile to this. If the computer revolution is one such industrial revolution, consider this: Look at computers 10 years ago, then 20 years ago, then 30 years ago, then 40 years ago, then 50 years ago. The leaps and bounds for the first 30 years are incomparable to the slow dribs and drabs of progress today.
Even industrial revolutions themselves are following the same profile. the initial industrial revolutions were truly revolutionary, but as new revolutions followed they too had increasingly incremental improvements to society. The Internet is nice and all, but in the grand scheme of things the sawmill and mechanical loom affect us all far more.
Once I understood that detail, it seems self-evidently true. When you build one factory, your output goes up maybe 100 times, but your second factory only doubles your production. Eventually you run out of factories to build and there's no more growth to be had.
Klaus Schwab is a scary guy for many reasons, but his concept of there being multiple industrial revolutions makes a lot of sense, and each one has a similar profile to this. If the computer revolution is one such industrial revolution, consider this: Look at computers 10 years ago, then 20 years ago, then 30 years ago, then 40 years ago, then 50 years ago. The leaps and bounds for the first 30 years are incomparable to the slow dribs and drabs of progress today.
Even industrial revolutions themselves are following the same profile. the initial industrial revolutions were truly revolutionary, but as new revolutions followed they too had increasingly incremental improvements to society. The Internet is nice and all, but in the grand scheme of things the sawmill and mechanical loom affect us all far more.
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