In 2008, I came up with a concept of a "deregulatory bubble and bust". It applies to anything that was held down by a rule for a long time.
The idea goes like this:
1. Something is a bad idea. Everyone knows it's a bad idea.
2. Someone makes the bad idea against the rules.
3. People stop not doing the bad idea because it's a bad idea and start not doing the bad idea because it's against the rules.
4. Someone goes "Why do we have this rule?"
5. The rule is repealed.
6. Everyone does the thing that's a bad idea since nobody remembers it's a bad idea and only didn't do it because it was against the rules.
7. For a short time, everyone gets the positive parts of doing the bad idea, so more people do it thinking it's a good idea.
8. The bad consequences of doing a bad idea happen to everyone at once, causing problems everywhere the rule existed
9. People end up learning the bad idea is a bad idea and stop doing it because it's a bad idea again.
I think we're at step 9 with respect to many parts of the sexual revolution. Gen Z is having less sex than most generations before them, and in part it's because it turns out sex is dangerous -- it isn't a magical purse filled with gold coins that can be thrown out, there's a cost and people have realized that so there's a return to more care and less risk taking.
So all this really seems like hopping on a bandwagon after it's already reached its destination.
The idea goes like this:
1. Something is a bad idea. Everyone knows it's a bad idea.
2. Someone makes the bad idea against the rules.
3. People stop not doing the bad idea because it's a bad idea and start not doing the bad idea because it's against the rules.
4. Someone goes "Why do we have this rule?"
5. The rule is repealed.
6. Everyone does the thing that's a bad idea since nobody remembers it's a bad idea and only didn't do it because it was against the rules.
7. For a short time, everyone gets the positive parts of doing the bad idea, so more people do it thinking it's a good idea.
8. The bad consequences of doing a bad idea happen to everyone at once, causing problems everywhere the rule existed
9. People end up learning the bad idea is a bad idea and stop doing it because it's a bad idea again.
I think we're at step 9 with respect to many parts of the sexual revolution. Gen Z is having less sex than most generations before them, and in part it's because it turns out sex is dangerous -- it isn't a magical purse filled with gold coins that can be thrown out, there's a cost and people have realized that so there's a return to more care and less risk taking.
So all this really seems like hopping on a bandwagon after it's already reached its destination.
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