If they don't forecast something bad, and something bad happens, everyone is upset.
If they do forecast something bad, and nothing bad happens, people are relieved.
There's a baked in incentive to err on the side of caution rather than aim for accuracy.
If they do forecast something bad, and nothing bad happens, people are relieved.
There's a baked in incentive to err on the side of caution rather than aim for accuracy.