I suspect in the recession I expect to see this year (it could end up next year, but I'm pretty sure it'll be this year), tech ends up revaluing, similar to how Netflix did a few years ago. In that case, the company lost 80% of its valuation just to get to a PE that matches most other companies on earth.
A hypothetical 2025 recession wouldn't look anything like the 2008 or 2020 recessions, because there's no dry powder left. Most governments have been running up debt like there's literally no tomorrow, with the US doubling its debt every 4-8 years, Canada tripling its debt in the past 15 years, inflation still running hot in most places in spite of years of QT, and in spite of that the lived reality for most people has been cataclysmic, with food bank usage and homelessness reaching insane records. The idea that cold places like Edmonton have huge tent cities because normal people can't afford homes anymore ought to be a wake-up call. If the government does what they did in 2008 or 2020, it's only going to make that worse, and we could have a Sri Lanka situation on our hands.
Another huge thing is the "muh GDP" meme. Just because the GDP number goes up doesn't mean your quality of life did. You don't get paid in GDP, you get paid in whatever your employer pays you. If your rent goes up, that increases GDP even though your life just got worse. If your pay goes down but they hire a bunch of foreigners who live 25 to a basement as was discovered a few years ago in Brampton, GDP goes up even though your life just got worse.
A hypothetical 2025 recession wouldn't look anything like the 2008 or 2020 recessions, because there's no dry powder left. Most governments have been running up debt like there's literally no tomorrow, with the US doubling its debt every 4-8 years, Canada tripling its debt in the past 15 years, inflation still running hot in most places in spite of years of QT, and in spite of that the lived reality for most people has been cataclysmic, with food bank usage and homelessness reaching insane records. The idea that cold places like Edmonton have huge tent cities because normal people can't afford homes anymore ought to be a wake-up call. If the government does what they did in 2008 or 2020, it's only going to make that worse, and we could have a Sri Lanka situation on our hands.
Another huge thing is the "muh GDP" meme. Just because the GDP number goes up doesn't mean your quality of life did. You don't get paid in GDP, you get paid in whatever your employer pays you. If your rent goes up, that increases GDP even though your life just got worse. If your pay goes down but they hire a bunch of foreigners who live 25 to a basement as was discovered a few years ago in Brampton, GDP goes up even though your life just got worse.
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