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Russian Federation demands Ukraine to cede about 30% more territories that Russia does not yet control - ISW

Oh wow, is this a credible current map of control?

Last I saw Russia was nibbling at the edges.

Thanks Zalenski for saving Ukraine instead of negotiating at the start.

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@threalist Current line. The rest is now demanded.

Wild.

Can't believe the literal clown installed as a puppet of foreign powers turned our to be a bad leader for the Ukrainian people.

🤡

I would say, "you get what you deserve" but the Ukrainian people didn't deserve any of this. They were just expendable pawns.

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@threalist This demand is very good for Russia. They get a secure "belly" with a natural border, plus forcing Europe to take the biggest pain, a rump state.

@Shlomo @threalist the big oinkening
also ukraine wont get to steal LNG from europe anymore

@Shlomo @threalist As funny it is, it's just unrealistic. I'm betting they'd settled on annexed territories plus Odessa.

...yet.

@white_male @Shlomo @threalist I wouldn't quite say "unrealistic". They have obliterated the most entrenched positions. What remains is much much weaker. If you follow the daily military updates, you will notice a increase in tempo. It is accelerating week after week. We will see though. I don't have a crystal ball and it is possible that Russia could settle with what they have but I think the best thing would be to leave Ukraine totally castrated by taking away their Black Sea access. Kharkov is also a historically Russian city so it would be good to take that back.

The strongest move would definitely be to take everything east of the Dnieper though, providing Russia a strong geographic border. Odessa would be nice for similar reasons as it would provide some shelter from future attacks due to mountainous terrain being nearby. Ideally Transnistria would be next to Russia controlled territory. This would be the optimal move.

@Sovereign @Shlomo @threalist Short and sweet, 4 oblasts are his only valid claims, 5th one as a treat. Everything else is too far off current contact line to be agreed upon, unless GAE manages to put up a puppet that will surrender more.

Big RU claim. Big GAE claim against UA. Calling out jewlensky a dictator and more. All a negotiation tactic. It is unknown how much guarantee can EU give jewlensky at this point to derail whatever is trying to happen too.

@white_male @Shlomo @threalist "Everything else is too far off current contact line to be agreed upon" correct for today. I'm just saying it will be hard to know what the map will look like in 2 months. Negotiations will take a bit and we still have to await Ukrainian elections. Zelensky is legally barred from negotiating.

@Shlomo @white_male @threalist good summary of how it was and how it is going.

@Sovereign @Shlomo @threalist Current for today. Yeah, let's realistically say it's valid for 3-4 months.

@Shlomo @Sovereign @white_male @threalist counterpoint: Estonia, Latvia, finland

@Ghislaine @Shlomo @white_male @threalist what about them? They are generally pushovers. Especially the Baltics.

@Sovereign @Shlomo @white_male @threalist they’re in nato and haven’t been invaded

@Ghislaine @Shlomo @white_male @threalist NATO article 5 isn't always something that applies. Fucking around and finding out doesn't always mean NATO will defend you. I hope this becomes abundantly clear in the future.