The Liberals certainly did win the election yesterday -- the Liberals won the popular vote for the first time in several elections as well as picking up more seats -- but one thing to be aware of is it wasn't entirely because the Liberals won and the conservatives lost. In fact, both the liberals and conservatives each picked up a huge number of seats, with the conservatives picking up more new seats than the liberals. Normally, the conservatives picking up this many seats would have represented a massive win, but that's not the story of this election. The liberals got more than 40% of the vote for the first time since 2000, and the conservatives got more than 40% of the vote for the first time since 1988.
This election was the story of the collapse of the Bloc Quebecois, and also of the NDP. The BQ are separatists, and the NDP are socialists with a party which used to literally be the communist party of Canada. The BQ lost 11 seats -- down a third from the previous election -- and the NDP lost a whopping 17 seats, 70% of their seats, leaving them with 7 -- and they are no longer an official political party in Canada.
The NDP leader, shown in this file photo at his home in Justin Trudeau's purse, basically destroyed the NDP by hitching his wagon hard to the Liberals. People made the reasonable choice that if they're going to get the liberals anyway, they might as well vote liberal. His horrible leadership not only lost the election for his party hard, but his entire party was in turmoil because he'd lost the confidence of the rank and file and senior leadership.
In a great demonstration that partisanship isn't always a great lens to see the world through, the NDP lost a lot of votes to the liberals, but also a lot of votes to the conservatives. Jagmeet Singh lost his seat in Burnaby North to the Liberal candidate, but he came in third -- behind the Conservative candidate as well by a large margin. The Liberals represented technocratic leftism, the conservatives represented working class populism that the NDP ought to have been able to capitalize on, except Singh totally betrayed the working class in 2021 during the trucker convoy.
Closer to 2018-2019, I thought that Singh could have become the next prime minister of Canada if he'd focused on a positive, non identitarian form of populist leftism, as Canada does have a deep appetite for such a thing and Trudeau seemed self-evidently heading towards a self-destruction. Unfortunately, Singh became Trudeau's lapdog and far from being the next prime minister of Canada, he might have totally destroyed his party for all time and started the process of Canadian politics becoming a 2-party state. This election the NDP only got a couple more percent of the vote than the PPC did in 2021 -- and the PPC didn't get a single seat in that election and are largely considered irrelevant today (6.8 vs. 4.9)
On the topic of party leaders who lost their seat, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his in this election in an event that was forecasted but I still found surprising. In an election where the Conservatives picked up a lot of seats and he was on track to winning a majority at one point, he ended up losing his own seat. That's a shame, he was a good party leader overall and I think the conservative wins did overall represent that.
Of course, one thing to keep in mind is that Canadian political parties have been in dire straights before. In 1993 the federal Progressive Conservatives ceased to be an official party, losing a whopping 165 seats and retaining only 2. In that same election, the NDP only got 9 seats. That election was a dramatic contrast to this one, however, in that the Bloc Quebecois separatist party had just been created and became the official opposition, and a new Conservative party called Reform came about and was able to pick up 50 seats. Unlike this election which saw support ossify into two major parties, that election saw support leaving some parties and entering others.
That being said, parties rise and fall and rise again, so I think it's important not to assume today is forever. The Liberals have a big task ahead of them proving to Canadians that they aren't still Justin Trudeau's party (and if the election had not been among the shortest elections in Canadian history, the Conservatives were beginning to recover their previous momentum as Carney was slowly failing to demonstrate this), the NDP can pick a new leader and begin rebuilding their trust with the base, the BQ really didn't do anything wrong in this election and were stuck between nationalism and a Trump place, and the Conservatives have likely found a flavor of rhetoric that's likely to resonate moving forward. Assuming Carney can keep his coalition together for 4 years (and that isn't a given -- many minority governments have failed much earlier, including Trudeau's own Liberals in more than one of his minority terms), the next Canadian election, Donald Trump will no longer be President, so everyone will have to find a new path to victory.
This election was the story of the collapse of the Bloc Quebecois, and also of the NDP. The BQ are separatists, and the NDP are socialists with a party which used to literally be the communist party of Canada. The BQ lost 11 seats -- down a third from the previous election -- and the NDP lost a whopping 17 seats, 70% of their seats, leaving them with 7 -- and they are no longer an official political party in Canada.
The NDP leader, shown in this file photo at his home in Justin Trudeau's purse, basically destroyed the NDP by hitching his wagon hard to the Liberals. People made the reasonable choice that if they're going to get the liberals anyway, they might as well vote liberal. His horrible leadership not only lost the election for his party hard, but his entire party was in turmoil because he'd lost the confidence of the rank and file and senior leadership.
In a great demonstration that partisanship isn't always a great lens to see the world through, the NDP lost a lot of votes to the liberals, but also a lot of votes to the conservatives. Jagmeet Singh lost his seat in Burnaby North to the Liberal candidate, but he came in third -- behind the Conservative candidate as well by a large margin. The Liberals represented technocratic leftism, the conservatives represented working class populism that the NDP ought to have been able to capitalize on, except Singh totally betrayed the working class in 2021 during the trucker convoy.
Closer to 2018-2019, I thought that Singh could have become the next prime minister of Canada if he'd focused on a positive, non identitarian form of populist leftism, as Canada does have a deep appetite for such a thing and Trudeau seemed self-evidently heading towards a self-destruction. Unfortunately, Singh became Trudeau's lapdog and far from being the next prime minister of Canada, he might have totally destroyed his party for all time and started the process of Canadian politics becoming a 2-party state. This election the NDP only got a couple more percent of the vote than the PPC did in 2021 -- and the PPC didn't get a single seat in that election and are largely considered irrelevant today (6.8 vs. 4.9)
On the topic of party leaders who lost their seat, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his in this election in an event that was forecasted but I still found surprising. In an election where the Conservatives picked up a lot of seats and he was on track to winning a majority at one point, he ended up losing his own seat. That's a shame, he was a good party leader overall and I think the conservative wins did overall represent that.
Of course, one thing to keep in mind is that Canadian political parties have been in dire straights before. In 1993 the federal Progressive Conservatives ceased to be an official party, losing a whopping 165 seats and retaining only 2. In that same election, the NDP only got 9 seats. That election was a dramatic contrast to this one, however, in that the Bloc Quebecois separatist party had just been created and became the official opposition, and a new Conservative party called Reform came about and was able to pick up 50 seats. Unlike this election which saw support ossify into two major parties, that election saw support leaving some parties and entering others.
That being said, parties rise and fall and rise again, so I think it's important not to assume today is forever. The Liberals have a big task ahead of them proving to Canadians that they aren't still Justin Trudeau's party (and if the election had not been among the shortest elections in Canadian history, the Conservatives were beginning to recover their previous momentum as Carney was slowly failing to demonstrate this), the NDP can pick a new leader and begin rebuilding their trust with the base, the BQ really didn't do anything wrong in this election and were stuck between nationalism and a Trump place, and the Conservatives have likely found a flavor of rhetoric that's likely to resonate moving forward. Assuming Carney can keep his coalition together for 4 years (and that isn't a given -- many minority governments have failed much earlier, including Trudeau's own Liberals in more than one of his minority terms), the next Canadian election, Donald Trump will no longer be President, so everyone will have to find a new path to victory.
@sj_zero Huh? I read the exact opposite, the Conservatives captured the popular vote by a margin. I guess MSM is making the shit up as it goes along for how the WEF banker somehow won a re-election for the most despised party in history at this point.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/CANADA-POLITICS/ELECTION-RESULTS/lgpdxggaxpo/
That's the sauce. The conservatives won the popular vote for the past couple elections but at least at the moment it appears the liberals won it by a slim margin.
That's the sauce. The conservatives won the popular vote for the past couple elections but at least at the moment it appears the liberals won it by a slim margin.
@sj_zero REUTERS, great source. Factchecker pandemic faggo corp communiques.
Eh, I'm not normally the sort to use a source like that, but when it's an objective fact like a number from an official source, it isn't like Rebel news or Juno news or National Telegraph is going to show anything different.
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@sj_zero You should get the lie direct from the source, elections chynadastan
https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e
Man, one thing that's impressive is the PPCs fall from grace. From nearly 5% to 0.7% in one election cycle.
Man, one thing that's impressive is the PPCs fall from grace. From nearly 5% to 0.7% in one election cycle.
@sj_zero
The sad part is that the Liberals only need 3 extra seats to have a majority, which they can gain by bargaining with their NDP knob-gobblers who have 7 seats to offer. Ironically that still gives the NDP a lot of bargaining power, arguably more than the Conservatives who can't effectively oppose when the Liberals and NDP join forces. That's always been the predominant dynamic anyway, so can expect it to remain the status quo.
The sad part is that the Liberals only need 3 extra seats to have a majority, which they can gain by bargaining with their NDP knob-gobblers who have 7 seats to offer. Ironically that still gives the NDP a lot of bargaining power, arguably more than the Conservatives who can't effectively oppose when the Liberals and NDP join forces. That's always been the predominant dynamic anyway, so can expect it to remain the status quo.
Canada won't survive much longer and that's a good thing