It just hit me. The barbarians are sacking Rome, folks. The tanks are in the streets of Moscow. The US Empire is over, bar the shouting
What happens now? What kind of phoenix could be born from the ashes?
It's one of the core themes in my next book Future Sepsis, the future will look much different than the past 70 years.
Who will remain in the future? The kids of people who had kids. Which isn't a lot of people, the statistics are absurd. It's a human mass-extinction event.
Will there even be a Russia in 50 years? I mean, they're sending an awful lot of their future to die off in a time where they don't have the birth rate to support sending a bunch of men off to die.
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@strypey I mean, North Korea hasnt run itself down yet - Im sure the USA has plenty of dis-saving to go yet.
@indieterminacy
> North Korea hasnt run itself down yet
North Korea, for it's sins, is not the basketcase the US is. It's also not an empire, more of an adjunct of China (like Vietnam), so not really a useful comparison.
> Im sure the USA has plenty of dis-saving to go yet
Empires collapse over generations. Rome was actually sacked many times before its empire stopped being taken seriously as a world power, and chunks of it continued to claim its mantle for centuries (Holy Roman Empire etc).
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@sj_zero
> The collapse started 30 years ago
Agreed, just as the USSR collapse started decades before the tanks in the streets of Moscow. But there is a point of no return in the process, and IMHO the US just passed it.
> it will be global
Yes and no. Pax Americana is clearly over, and the US being a global empire, the effects will be noticeable globally. Other current and future world powers will be disrupted by the changes to some degree, but overall will do very well out of it.
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@sj_zero
> It's a human mass-extinction event
Really? Current demographic trends are that the human population will plateau around the middle of the century, and slowly decline. Hopefully back below the carrying capacity of the planet without the fossil fuel energy bubble. Which will be well and truly over in 70 years.
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> Will there even be a Russia in 50 years?
Hard to say, but it's survived many *big* disruptions, from the Mongol invasion to the collapse of the USSR, so...
Your point about their demographics is well taken. But Putin's regime is just as horrifically pro-natalist as Orange Stalin's, so they're aware. It's worth noting that a disproportionate number of Russians dying in Ukraine are from ethnic minorities, so the invasion could be seen as a highly creative form of ethnic cleansing.
@stevewfolds
> There will be blood as well as disease
There already is. What I'm interested in is what can the US population salvage from the wreck.
For example, will there still be a US, with the current borders? Counterintuitively, the current obsession with border security suggests their ability to maintain monopoly of force in border areas is in question. I've seen serious proposals for 4 smaller countries, based on current alignment between states.
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Some US states have much healthier governing institutions than the current circus at the federal level. I've seen serious proposals for 4 smaller countries, based on current alignment between states.