More likely that Satoshi was a three letter agency to accelerate and normalize the adoption of digital currencies.
..so maybe a better metaphor would be a Judas goat
..so maybe a better metaphor would be a Judas goat
1. People used digital currency before Bitcoin (Credit cards).
2. Bitcoin makes it impossible for banks to lend money without risk of getting bankrupted out in a short squeeze, so no, it was not good for them, at all.
2. Bitcoin makes it impossible for banks to lend money without risk of getting bankrupted out in a short squeeze, so no, it was not good for them, at all.
@threalist retards need social constructs like religion and money.
So we should praise the figures who can detach these things from established powers in any way, even if those powers, like the Catholic Church or tether coopt the idea to reclaim power
My assumption is that they normalize it, then pull the switch part of the bait and switch, and suddenly the CBDC is the only legal one allowed.
Sure, you can't stop Bitcoin, but it won't matter if they make it illegal.
Sure, you can't stop Bitcoin, but it won't matter if they make it illegal.
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@threalist @cjd
Just like they made true Christianity illegal.
I do enjoy why you are attacking this pinned post at the moment
> the CBDC
The "CBDC" already exists, it's USDT / USDC, and it's on a dozen different chains with markets to swap it with 1000 different other cryptos. And every year, this whole system becomes bigger and messier and more politically entrenched.
> if they make it illegal
Where? In every single country in the world?
Not to mention half the oligarchs in any given country are already secretly stashing Bitcoin, even while they're telling each other that they hate it (because it undermines the money-printer that made them all wealthy in the first place).
100 years ago, they made gold illegal in the US. It took 40 years before the system collapsed. If they were to try the same thing again with Bitcoin, I recon it'd be gone within a decade.
The "CBDC" already exists, it's USDT / USDC, and it's on a dozen different chains with markets to swap it with 1000 different other cryptos. And every year, this whole system becomes bigger and messier and more politically entrenched.
> if they make it illegal
Where? In every single country in the world?
Not to mention half the oligarchs in any given country are already secretly stashing Bitcoin, even while they're telling each other that they hate it (because it undermines the money-printer that made them all wealthy in the first place).
100 years ago, they made gold illegal in the US. It took 40 years before the system collapsed. If they were to try the same thing again with Bitcoin, I recon it'd be gone within a decade.
My prediction is that USD will be the last reserve currency in history.
The FED will flog the whole world like a red-headed stepchild because they know they can, they know every central bank needs USD to remain solvent and they get to print it.
BRICS coin and other joke projects will never get off the ground because everybody wants to be the guy printing the money and giving it to the other guy, and nobody wants to be the other guy.
Same for UN Kumbaya World Currency bullshit, no chance. Because the FED is perfectly happy being king of the world, and everyone who is not the FED doesn't fucking matter.
Likewise, no other crypto will ever threaten Bitcoin because it's a greasy pole, you have the guy on top and you have everyone else. Even after the billions of dollars floated into Ethereum, and even with a decade long PR war against Bitcoin, ETH still failed.
Bitcoin is the kryptonite of banks, because if you lend Bitcoin you don't have, and then suddenly everyone decides to take custody, boom, you're bankrupt. Story of every exchange that has ever been wiped out.
When the USD finally collapses, it's most likely in my opinion that the world reserve will become Bitcoin. That's because for all it's faults, it at least doesn't require you to trust anyone.
The FED will flog the whole world like a red-headed stepchild because they know they can, they know every central bank needs USD to remain solvent and they get to print it.
BRICS coin and other joke projects will never get off the ground because everybody wants to be the guy printing the money and giving it to the other guy, and nobody wants to be the other guy.
Same for UN Kumbaya World Currency bullshit, no chance. Because the FED is perfectly happy being king of the world, and everyone who is not the FED doesn't fucking matter.
Likewise, no other crypto will ever threaten Bitcoin because it's a greasy pole, you have the guy on top and you have everyone else. Even after the billions of dollars floated into Ethereum, and even with a decade long PR war against Bitcoin, ETH still failed.
Bitcoin is the kryptonite of banks, because if you lend Bitcoin you don't have, and then suddenly everyone decides to take custody, boom, you're bankrupt. Story of every exchange that has ever been wiped out.
When the USD finally collapses, it's most likely in my opinion that the world reserve will become Bitcoin. That's because for all it's faults, it at least doesn't require you to trust anyone.
Back to bartering using multiple mediaries like it used to be.
The only problem bitcoin and other crypto currencies have is the hard finality.
Negotiable instruments — checks, notes, sometimes bills of lading — have been the classic instruments used to facilitate trade and have very specific, nuanced rules that facilitate those transactions, and it works. The lack of warranties and ability to unwind transactions is missing in crypto. See UCC Article III for more fun!
The only problem bitcoin and other crypto currencies have is the hard finality.
Negotiable instruments — checks, notes, sometimes bills of lading — have been the classic instruments used to facilitate trade and have very specific, nuanced rules that facilitate those transactions, and it works. The lack of warranties and ability to unwind transactions is missing in crypto. See UCC Article III for more fun!
@threalist @Sirpantangelini central banks have zero to gain and everything to lose from widespread adoption of a decentralized digital currency like bitcoin, that they don't control. i see no evidence it had anything to do with the western intelligence agencies which try to enforce the globalist central banking system on everyone. this is the opposite of what they want
@cjd
Agree. America will survive the sovereign debt crisis, but it will default and the USD goes bye bye.
I'm still betting on USDC adoption. Definitely hold BTC and gold as a hedge.
@Sirpantangelini @threalist
Agree. America will survive the sovereign debt crisis, but it will default and the USD goes bye bye.
I'm still betting on USDC adoption. Definitely hold BTC and gold as a hedge.
@Sirpantangelini @threalist
That's a feauture, not a bug.
We also use protocols like cashu, fedimint, Liquid and timelocks to facilitate simmilar transaction types.
Why try to reinvent the wheel? Maybe we should reinvent riparian rights too, and despite the fact that both bodies of law go back to at least Rome and are time tested. But you do you. Living on a prayer instead of what's been field tested.
I can write a note on a leaf or rock. Show me how you transact bitcoin on those. EMP and your economy is toast. Real fucking secure.
I can write a note on a leaf or rock. Show me how you transact bitcoin on those. EMP and your economy is toast. Real fucking secure.
@Humpleupagus @Sirpantangelini @cjd @threalist That's what I'm sayin'! There's no there, there. When, not if, the power goes out, they have nothing!
Silver coins, food, and bullets are actual things I can hold in my sweaty hands.
Silver coins, food, and bullets are actual things I can hold in my sweaty hands.
I invested in aluminum.
Specifically rolls of aluminum.
10,000' rolls.
I am opposed to fractional reserve banking.
I am opposed to central banks. All central bank currency is a CBDC.
I run a full bitcoin node.
I test apps using eliptic curve cryptography and the lightning network.
I write and make videos about it on nostr.
Why? To make the world a better place.
Here are 21 sats.
You can leave them on the table if you want to go back to Roman coin clipping or whatever.
https://coinos.io/ecash/86dbb9de-4b3f-4ca6-a7b5-52ea93cc0e76
I am opposed to central banks. All central bank currency is a CBDC.
I run a full bitcoin node.
I test apps using eliptic curve cryptography and the lightning network.
I write and make videos about it on nostr.
Why? To make the world a better place.
Here are 21 sats.
You can leave them on the table if you want to go back to Roman coin clipping or whatever.
https://coinos.io/ecash/86dbb9de-4b3f-4ca6-a7b5-52ea93cc0e76
At ratification, people used to trade primarily in furs, beads, mixed metals, and notes.
Notes were interesting, because back then they acted kind of like bonds. You'd go to the bank and give them something of value, and not necessarily cash, and they'd give you a note. Sellers would accept notes (or even partial notes, people would rip them in pieces to divide value) in exchange for goods. Sellers would discount the note based on cost and expectation of collection, e.g. if the note was made by the bank of Georgia and you were in New York, it may
be heavily discounted.
Now, that's not the only way notes could work. Currently, they are required by code in all states to be for a sum certain and are to be repaid in cash, but I suppose a note could allow for repayment in another commodity, e.g. corn if there was a change in law.
Further, it doesn't require cryptography, and it leaves a tangible record. And like checks, they are easily transferable.
Notes were interesting, because back then they acted kind of like bonds. You'd go to the bank and give them something of value, and not necessarily cash, and they'd give you a note. Sellers would accept notes (or even partial notes, people would rip them in pieces to divide value) in exchange for goods. Sellers would discount the note based on cost and expectation of collection, e.g. if the note was made by the bank of Georgia and you were in New York, it may
be heavily discounted.
Now, that's not the only way notes could work. Currently, they are required by code in all states to be for a sum certain and are to be repaid in cash, but I suppose a note could allow for repayment in another commodity, e.g. corn if there was a change in law.
Further, it doesn't require cryptography, and it leaves a tangible record. And like checks, they are easily transferable.
Negotiable instruments don't require fractional reseve banking or any central bank.
A draft (check) would require a store of wealth, an account of the drawer at a third party on whom the check is drawn, but that could be a neighbor.
A note is a two party instrument at base and requires no bank whatsoever. I prepare notes regularly, and banks are not necessary — client sells a house with a vendor lien, buyer makes a note to seller's order promising to pay some amount of money over time and delivers an associated deed of trust (the security). No bank anywhere in there.
A draft (check) would require a store of wealth, an account of the drawer at a third party on whom the check is drawn, but that could be a neighbor.
A note is a two party instrument at base and requires no bank whatsoever. I prepare notes regularly, and banks are not necessary — client sells a house with a vendor lien, buyer makes a note to seller's order promising to pay some amount of money over time and delivers an associated deed of trust (the security). No bank anywhere in there.
> Back to bartering
It's easy to imagine super-smart barter systems taking over everything, like where everybody has a stock portfolio and I pay you by swapping stocks I want for stocks you want and sending them to you. But the problem with that is market depth. Shallow markets are crap to trade in, every time you buy or sell, the price swings wildly and you get screwed. Or else, you need to coordinate trades in a bunch of different markets at the same time, so then you get screwed by high frequency bots.
Consider forex for a second: There's a market for like South African Rand vs. Australian Dollar, but that market is kind of fake - nobody really uses it for large transactions. If you need to go from ZAR to AUD at scale, you'll typically swap ZAR to USD and then USD to AUD. Central banks basically just worry about the market for their currency vs. USD, and let the rest sort itself out.
So the point I'm making is that there's a really strong natural pull to make one asset become the global medium of exchange.
> crypto currencies have is the hard finality
This isn't really a problem for reserve currency transactions. Historically these type of transactions only happen between financial institutions when they are settling up. They're currently done as international wires which are generally considered to be final already.
Most individual transactions are via credit card, and in this case merchants are required to carry a balance with the processing company in order to cover any possible chargebacks. I don't see credit card usage going anywhere anytime soon, but once you receive payment, you will be able to pull it out as BTC which is final (you already can).
That said, there IS a major problem with BTC world reserve currency:
It becomes really dangerous to borrow money. This brings back the Gold Standard days when the availability of gold was sometimes every plentiful and other times very scarce, and this caused borrowers to get wiped out when they were in debt during lean times.
Of course for those who believe the 1890s was a better time, this might be considered a feature. But we should at least recognize that it will lay waste to the corpo-governmental ecosystem as we know it.
It's easy to imagine super-smart barter systems taking over everything, like where everybody has a stock portfolio and I pay you by swapping stocks I want for stocks you want and sending them to you. But the problem with that is market depth. Shallow markets are crap to trade in, every time you buy or sell, the price swings wildly and you get screwed. Or else, you need to coordinate trades in a bunch of different markets at the same time, so then you get screwed by high frequency bots.
Consider forex for a second: There's a market for like South African Rand vs. Australian Dollar, but that market is kind of fake - nobody really uses it for large transactions. If you need to go from ZAR to AUD at scale, you'll typically swap ZAR to USD and then USD to AUD. Central banks basically just worry about the market for their currency vs. USD, and let the rest sort itself out.
So the point I'm making is that there's a really strong natural pull to make one asset become the global medium of exchange.
> crypto currencies have is the hard finality
This isn't really a problem for reserve currency transactions. Historically these type of transactions only happen between financial institutions when they are settling up. They're currently done as international wires which are generally considered to be final already.
Most individual transactions are via credit card, and in this case merchants are required to carry a balance with the processing company in order to cover any possible chargebacks. I don't see credit card usage going anywhere anytime soon, but once you receive payment, you will be able to pull it out as BTC which is final (you already can).
That said, there IS a major problem with BTC world reserve currency:
It becomes really dangerous to borrow money. This brings back the Gold Standard days when the availability of gold was sometimes every plentiful and other times very scarce, and this caused borrowers to get wiped out when they were in debt during lean times.
Of course for those who believe the 1890s was a better time, this might be considered a feature. But we should at least recognize that it will lay waste to the corpo-governmental ecosystem as we know it.
The lack of warranties and ability to unwind transactions is missing in crypto.
This was also a feature of cash and people never had issues. Also power to 'unwind' your transactions is the same power to freeze your transactions ala truckers honking.
Crypto has smart contracts if you're into that kind of thing though.
Please give me an example of how you put 40000 tons of mangos on a ship in Argentina and get it to market in California using only cash without any other instrument. I'll wait here.
Smart contracts are generally self-executing, and thus lack a primary feature of a negotiable instrument.... The ability to breach if you got fucked.
Smart contracts are generally self-executing, and thus lack a primary feature of a negotiable instrument.... The ability to breach if you got fucked.
In the case of a check, I can call the drawee bank and stop payment for example.
I could refuse to pay a note.
I could refuse to pay a note.
I don't see that changing. The only question is whether you might draft a note denominated in Dollars, or in Bitcoins, or in mmBTU of gas at Henry Hub (if it's cash settled then you need to define "cash" as well)
The only problem with mmBTU is you're putting a certain amount of trust in Henry Hub not to monkey with the prices, which might not be appropriate if you're China, doing an oil deal with Russia.
Side note: I've heard tell that some of the BTC exchange guys are doing deals with remittence companies (Western Union like) to move between local currencies using the BTC market, because for some currency pairs, it happens to that currency->BTC->currency is a bit cheaper than currency->USD->currency with the traditional forex channels.
The only problem with mmBTU is you're putting a certain amount of trust in Henry Hub not to monkey with the prices, which might not be appropriate if you're China, doing an oil deal with Russia.
Side note: I've heard tell that some of the BTC exchange guys are doing deals with remittence companies (Western Union like) to move between local currencies using the BTC market, because for some currency pairs, it happens to that currency->BTC->currency is a bit cheaper than currency->USD->currency with the traditional forex channels.
I'm not sure why bitcoin would be necessary at settlement level. Bitcoin is really based in distrust — its design to establish ownership and transfer with basically zero trust.
Banks on the otherhand know each other and generally trust each other from course of dealing. So I don't see what bitcoin adds. Banks could make up any agreed ledger or currency and settle upon it. I don't get why a zero trust coin is required in a high trust settlement procedure.
I think bitcoin is fine for small transactions, buying candy bars. It just doesn't scale for commerce.
Banks on the otherhand know each other and generally trust each other from course of dealing. So I don't see what bitcoin adds. Banks could make up any agreed ledger or currency and settle upon it. I don't get why a zero trust coin is required in a high trust settlement procedure.
I think bitcoin is fine for small transactions, buying candy bars. It just doesn't scale for commerce.
> Banks on the otherhand know each other and generally trust each other from course of dealing
The degree to which they trust one another is their credit lines, beyond those credit lines they require settlement - which is as easy as a transaction in a FED master account or a transfer of some treasury bonds...
That said, it's very easy for them to trust each other because they all keep their money in the US, typically with FED master accounts or treasury notes, so if one of them goes rogue the other one can sue them in the US and directly access their money.
Take away US hegemony and you're right back at the 1800s with every country randomly declaring each others' assets subject to seizure and authorizing piracy on the high seas...
The degree to which they trust one another is their credit lines, beyond those credit lines they require settlement - which is as easy as a transaction in a FED master account or a transfer of some treasury bonds...
That said, it's very easy for them to trust each other because they all keep their money in the US, typically with FED master accounts or treasury notes, so if one of them goes rogue the other one can sue them in the US and directly access their money.
Take away US hegemony and you're right back at the 1800s with every country randomly declaring each others' assets subject to seizure and authorizing piracy on the high seas...
Once the control grid is hardened, there won't be any money at all.
People in power have no need of money. Kings don't pay for anything - they simply demand what they want and they get it, or else.
Money has been used as a laser pointer to play with the proles, sending them chasing around the world to collect it, fighting with each other stealing from one another. It's been the best distraction ever to keep the 8 million proles from finding and lynching the 8000 or so that actually have power.
Once control is fortified, money will disappear. There will be no way to store wealth, as the proles won't be allowed to own anything. When a prole wants something, it will make a request, probably through an app on a brain chip or something, and if the powerful decide to grant that wish, the prole will receive that product.
It's been said that the powerful want to be gods, like the pharaohs of old. In this manner, they will become gods - receivers of "prayers" and ultimate decision makers of who gets what.
So, there will be a collapse/evaporation of money at some point, but not until control is firmly established. 8 million enemies are difficult to placate. LIke nitroglycerin, they have to be handled properly but can be useful - my guess is that "lab rats" for the research of immortality will be high on the list of uses.
So, how 'bout those Astros? :)
People in power have no need of money. Kings don't pay for anything - they simply demand what they want and they get it, or else.
Money has been used as a laser pointer to play with the proles, sending them chasing around the world to collect it, fighting with each other stealing from one another. It's been the best distraction ever to keep the 8 million proles from finding and lynching the 8000 or so that actually have power.
Once control is fortified, money will disappear. There will be no way to store wealth, as the proles won't be allowed to own anything. When a prole wants something, it will make a request, probably through an app on a brain chip or something, and if the powerful decide to grant that wish, the prole will receive that product.
It's been said that the powerful want to be gods, like the pharaohs of old. In this manner, they will become gods - receivers of "prayers" and ultimate decision makers of who gets what.
So, there will be a collapse/evaporation of money at some point, but not until control is firmly established. 8 million enemies are difficult to placate. LIke nitroglycerin, they have to be handled properly but can be useful - my guess is that "lab rats" for the research of immortality will be high on the list of uses.
So, how 'bout those Astros? :)
It was called the Golden age of piracy not the dark age so it must have been good
I would venture to say that countries like Iran or Afghanistan are probably already using BTC to backstop their currencies because they don't have access to US treasuries or the SWIFT system, and they prefer that over holding Chinese paper which might get frozen if China decides they don't like them...
I'MMA SLAP YAW WHOLE FACE YAW TRYNA MAKE ME FINNA BOUTTA YAW HEAR ME YET WHYBOY YAW GON DIE TONIGHT
I don’t see evidence (beyond the sunk cost fallacy called “full faith and credit…”) for your claim that the $ will maintain its value as global settlement layer as inflation becomes more and more obvious to the less instantiated global south trade architecture. Convenience will give way to SOV.
I didn't say it will last forever, I said that no other fiat thing will be able to replace it. IMO Bitcoin WILL edge it out over time.
My point is that the flogging will accelerate its reputation damage. The more gas, the faster we get there. Why JP isn’t lowering rates. It’s all super obvious, even before we get to the retrospect part of the simulation.
Agreed with that too. But central banks are between a rock and a hard place. USD is screwing them over, but BTC is the end of their entire business model, and there is no 3rd choice.
Unless BTC is somehow, AI drones using blockchain tracking, part of a Malthusian strategy.
We need to accelerate citadel construction in sovereign and defendable jurisdictions. Now.
Just because we aren’t paranoid enough, doesn’t mean they’re not after us.
We need to accelerate citadel construction in sovereign and defendable jurisdictions. Now.
Just because we aren’t paranoid enough, doesn’t mean they’re not after us.
@cjd @f57533f70aa9f4db5d5864183c155e3c3feff0669eb7d6d2433f4b7c72649973 @Sirpantangelini@noauthority.social @threalist The oil producing countries should create a currency called the barrel, redeemable for a barrel of oil at any of their ports. That currency would have hard value unlike USD or BTC.
There is not enough gold to replace USD at any reasonable valuation, and the long term price of gold is capped (well below the necessary level) by the cost of mining it.
> The oil producing countries
* US
* Russia
* Saudi (depends on US for military security)
US and Saudi already have a currency, it's the Dollar. Don't expect Russia and the US to coordinate on anything.
> That currency would have hard value unlike USD or BTC
USD is backed by military supremacy. With military supremacy, your oil is our oil. BTC is unique in that there's no central issuer of Bitcoin that the US Military can go and rob...
> There is not enough gold to replace USD at any reasonable valuation
What matters is transportation security, validation (when someone gives you gold, knowing it's real). All of that stuff sucks with gold, which is why people went from gold to gold certificates, then to paper.
* US
* Russia
* Saudi (depends on US for military security)
US and Saudi already have a currency, it's the Dollar. Don't expect Russia and the US to coordinate on anything.
> That currency would have hard value unlike USD or BTC
USD is backed by military supremacy. With military supremacy, your oil is our oil. BTC is unique in that there's no central issuer of Bitcoin that the US Military can go and rob...
> There is not enough gold to replace USD at any reasonable valuation
What matters is transportation security, validation (when someone gives you gold, knowing it's real). All of that stuff sucks with gold, which is why people went from gold to gold certificates, then to paper.
@cjd @mike805 @f57533f70aa9f4db5d5864183c155e3c3feff0669eb7d6d2433f4b7c72649973 @threalist
Too late for BTC. Middle East oil is being traded in XRP...
https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/de6c0-uae-and-india-use-xrp-not-usd-in-oil-trade
Too late for BTC. Middle East oil is being traded in XRP...
https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/de6c0-uae-and-india-use-xrp-not-usd-in-oil-trade
@cjd @f57533f70aa9f4db5d5864183c155e3c3feff0669eb7d6d2433f4b7c72649973 @threalist USA military supremacy is threatened by guerrilla tactics, drones, and possible American bankruptcy.
You cannot get oil out of a war zone, and the drone attack against Russian aircraft would be even easier against oil infrastructure since it doesn't move.
The USA may be able to destroy anything on the planet, as can Russia, but being able to economically exploit resources in a hostile zone is a lot harder.
@cjd @f57533f70aa9f4db5d5864183c155e3c3feff0669eb7d6d2433f4b7c72649973 @threalist BTC is very bad money. It's not a good measure of value (too volatile), it's not a good transaction medium (throughput constraints and resulting high fees.) So far it has been a good store of value, right up until it isn't. It's mostly good for crime.
America exited the Gold Standard because there wasn't enough gold to back all the debt money it had created.
US is militarily stronger than the next biggest power (Russia or China depending on how you count) by a LONG shot, and everyone already uses USD, so they're not gonna switch to CNY or RUB.
When US empire reaches it's end (this is going longer than you might think), there will not be anyone else with the power to fill the vacuum.
Why I said, USA will be the last world empire, and USD will be the last world reserve currency with an actual issuing authority.
When US empire reaches it's end (this is going longer than you might think), there will not be anyone else with the power to fill the vacuum.
Why I said, USA will be the last world empire, and USD will be the last world reserve currency with an actual issuing authority.
@cjd @f57533f70aa9f4db5d5864183c155e3c3feff0669eb7d6d2433f4b7c72649973 @threalist So what sort of money do you expect will be popular after the USA empire bites the dust?
That could happen any time. USSR looked pretty strong in the early 80s.
Will we go back to using a mixed basket of currencies?
> BTC is very bad money
But, everything else is worse.
Everybody wants to print money, nobody wants to use the other guy's printed money.
No more world hegemony, no more fiat reserve currency.
But, everything else is worse.
Everybody wants to print money, nobody wants to use the other guy's printed money.
No more world hegemony, no more fiat reserve currency.
@cjd @f57533f70aa9f4db5d5864183c155e3c3feff0669eb7d6d2433f4b7c72649973 @threalist A long time ago I argued for something called the Digital Barter Economy. Everything that is up for sale would have an associated digital certificate. Funds would hold a basket of those certificates, and shares in the funds would be the money. There would be severe penalties for anyone issuing a bogus certificate.
The user interface to this economy could still be a debit card and a numeric account balance.
> The lack of warranties and ability to unwind transactions is missing in crypto
We're rapidly approaching a level of integration where a fat finger somewhere is going to crash the market or start a war (probably both)
We're rapidly approaching a level of integration where a fat finger somewhere is going to crash the market or start a war (probably both)
> That could happen any time. USSR looked pretty strong in the early 80s.
People go and read like ZeroHedge (Russia backed) and they get the idea that the US and Russia and China are all like kind of the same size, and that pretty soon the US is going to lose it's position ruling the world. And this is just malarkey.
The scale of the US military/economic beast is just so obscenely massive that it can continue to decline for our entire lifetimes and STILL Russia and China will be no match.
There's only one way that the USD can possibly fail in the near term, and that is the American establishment deciding to intentionally rug-pull it so that they can continue their favorite sport since 1914: Pillage and rob the eastern and southern hemispheres.
> Will we go back to using a mixed basket of currencies?
When the USD and US military stops stabilizing the world, it's going to be fucking chaos. Everybody's gonna be fighting little wars and grabbing land from everyone, everyone's going to be printing money, lots of currencies and lots of currencies collapsing. Everybody's going to be loudly proclaiming that Bitcoin is evil and horrible and illegal, but quietly everybody is going to be using it for international settlement.
People go and read like ZeroHedge (Russia backed) and they get the idea that the US and Russia and China are all like kind of the same size, and that pretty soon the US is going to lose it's position ruling the world. And this is just malarkey.
The scale of the US military/economic beast is just so obscenely massive that it can continue to decline for our entire lifetimes and STILL Russia and China will be no match.
There's only one way that the USD can possibly fail in the near term, and that is the American establishment deciding to intentionally rug-pull it so that they can continue their favorite sport since 1914: Pillage and rob the eastern and southern hemispheres.
> Will we go back to using a mixed basket of currencies?
When the USD and US military stops stabilizing the world, it's going to be fucking chaos. Everybody's gonna be fighting little wars and grabbing land from everyone, everyone's going to be printing money, lots of currencies and lots of currencies collapsing. Everybody's going to be loudly proclaiming that Bitcoin is evil and horrible and illegal, but quietly everybody is going to be using it for international settlement.
Quoting another post in this thread:
> Back to bartering
It's easy to imagine super-smart barter systems taking over everything, like where everybody has a stock portfolio and I pay you by swapping stocks I want for stocks you want and sending them to you. But the problem with that is market depth. Shallow markets are crap to trade in, every time you buy or sell, the price swings wildly and you get screwed. Or else, you need to coordinate trades in a bunch of different markets at the same time, so then you get screwed by high frequency bots.
Consider forex for a second: There's a market for like South African Rand vs. Australian Dollar, but that market is kind of fake - nobody really uses it for large transactions. If you need to go from ZAR to AUD at scale, you'll typically swap ZAR to USD and then USD to AUD. Central banks basically just worry about the market for their currency vs. USD, and let the rest sort itself out.
So the point I'm making is that there's a really strong natural pull to make one asset become the global medium of exchange.
> Back to bartering
It's easy to imagine super-smart barter systems taking over everything, like where everybody has a stock portfolio and I pay you by swapping stocks I want for stocks you want and sending them to you. But the problem with that is market depth. Shallow markets are crap to trade in, every time you buy or sell, the price swings wildly and you get screwed. Or else, you need to coordinate trades in a bunch of different markets at the same time, so then you get screwed by high frequency bots.
Consider forex for a second: There's a market for like South African Rand vs. Australian Dollar, but that market is kind of fake - nobody really uses it for large transactions. If you need to go from ZAR to AUD at scale, you'll typically swap ZAR to USD and then USD to AUD. Central banks basically just worry about the market for their currency vs. USD, and let the rest sort itself out.
So the point I'm making is that there's a really strong natural pull to make one asset become the global medium of exchange.
@cjd @f57533f70aa9f4db5d5864183c155e3c3feff0669eb7d6d2433f4b7c72649973 @threalist There is an equally strong pull for whoever controls that asset to abuse the hell out of it.
For example, refusing trade with anyone who will not bow down to that entity's preferred politics.
And of course, creating more of that asset as fast as the owner can without crashing the value too hard.
The USA has done both of those things.
In a lower-tech era, we needed something like the USD. Tech might change that.
@cjd @f57533f70aa9f4db5d5864183c155e3c3feff0669eb7d6d2433f4b7c72649973 @threalist The digital barter economy deals with the liquidity problem. The funds may hold illiquid assets, until someone wants that specific asset and buys it from them at a profit. But the funds themselves - there might be three to five big ones - are highly liquid. They are like the big banks are now, and most people probably "bank" with one or two of them.
Right, that's why absent a global hegemony, it will be gold or BTC.
This is where I'm ironing out to build a barter network in 4 counties in Illinois.
https://globalforum.barternetwork.us/
https://globalforum.barternetwork.us/