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I really, really wish Your Party would just give up and go home.

We have a good political party on the left of British politics - the Green Party - with plenty of support behind it right now, and anything that splits the left-wing vote only goes to make sure we end up with a Reform UK government at the next election.

Splitting the left is absolutely the last thing we need in our crazy FPTP electoral system.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyx2zjd8qvo

#UKPolitics #YourParty #Corbyn

@statsguy
> Splitting the left is absolutely the last thing we need in our crazy FPTP electoral system

So and campaign for getting rid of FPP for proportional representation. Because that's actually the problem, not freedom of association.

People have been trying to get the whole left into one party since Marx advocated for it. It's never worked and it never will, for the same reason putting more cats in one sack never leads to more cooperation among cats.

@statsguy We ain't going away and a bunch of vegans copying 90s limp dim tactics have done bugger all to persuade me to vote for them.

@ravensrod Then I hope you enjoy the Reform UK government after the next election

@statsguy So you know the results of an election before anyone has cast a vote. Time machine or crystal ball?

@ravensrod I bet you £100 that, if YP contest the next election in seats where another progressive candidate has a realistic chance of winning the seat, that Reform win the most seats.

Loser to donate the money to a charity of the winner's choice.

Bet is void if YP has gone away by then or don't contest seats that Labour, Greens, SNP, Plaid, or LDs could plausibly win.

Deal?

@statsguy
> if YP contest the next election in seats where another progressive candidate has a realistic chance of winning the seat, that Reform win the most seats

Same argument applies in reverse. That's a good argument for having some candidates stand aside and endorse another party's candidate, as a form of strategic cooperation. Not a good argument for having fewer progressive parties, each of which might resonate with people the others don't.

@ravensrod

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@hypostase
> PR isn’t supposed to give any party the majority to rule, sure it can happen, but it’s a disaster when it does

Happened in NZ in 2020. Didn't seem to lead to significantly different results than if they'd needed the Greens for a majority, instead of just choosing to continue working with them.

@ReggieHere @benjamineskola

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Yes, Hipkins screwed the Greens when he failed upwards to the Labour leadership. But I'm pretty sure he would have done that anyway, and dared the Greens to trigger any early election if they didn't like it. Which I doubt they would have.

@strypey @ravensrod If they co-operate like that, then I agree.

I will also be incredibly surprised.

@statsguy @strypey
Conference voted in favour of "For the unique case of the 2026 English Local Government elections, the Party will seek to support all Independent socialist candidates of good standing where there is evidence of candidates being engaged in community campaigning and having the support of their local communities or trade unions branches."

@ravensrod @strypey So I guess they would still stand against Greens, Plaid, or SNP, since they're not independents, right?

@statsguy @strypey
That depends on those parties being willing to communicate and discuss such issues. We're not going to hold back our candidates just cos another party is standing. Remember no party is entitled to anyones vote. Elections are about individuals making their own descisions, not falling in line with some party strategy.

@ravensrod @strypey And that is exactly what Reform UK are relying on.

@statsguy @strypey There you go again waving the reform bogeyman. If you're that concerned then why not persuade greens not to stand where there's a YP candidate? Greens have been around for years without achieving much, give us a chance instead of whining.

@ravensrod @strypey You say Reform bogeyman, I say Reform threat. But if that doesn't bother you, then vote for whoever you want.

@statsguy
> You say Reform bogeyman, I say Reform threat

That's a distinction without a difference. Again people using their freedom of association is not the problem here. In FPP elections, what's clearly needed is practical cooperation between local branch of any party keen to keep reform, Tory and right-Labour candidates out of seats.

Zero-sum headbutting at the national level between political branding machines is about as useful as tits on a bull.

@ravensrod

@statsguy
> If they co-operate like that, then I agree. I will also be incredibly surprised

So ... you don't think these people can negotiate and cooperate with each other at the local level, but ... you think they should all join one party. I'm not sure you've really thought this through.

@ravensrod

@sj_zero
> A lot of people on the British right are sick of pressing the "right" button election after election and getting functionally left politicies

> Without a feedback mechanism, perhaps progressives would still be nationalist eugenicists

You're hilarious. Are you here all week?

@strypey Oh yes, totally. But the only way we can do that is by getting a party sympathetic to the idea elected.

If we keep electing parties of the right, we will never get PR, as they are very well aware that the right is far better at unifying behind a single party than the left ever has been or will be.

Moving to PR is Green Party policy.

@strypey Mind you, I'm not very optimistic that we would get PR even with a sympathetic government.

We had a referendum on changing the voting system in 2011. There was an absolutely overwhelming result in favour of keeping FPTP. No guarantee that wouldn't happen again, and I'm not sure if any party would be brave enough to implement a new system without a referendum.

@statsguy
> We had a referendum on changing the voting system in 2011

You don't think the political situation has changed significantly since then?

> If we keep electing parties of the right, we will never get PR

It's just as threatening to Labour, perhaps more so, as discussed here;

https://www.ppfideas.com/episodes/fixing-democracy%3A-electoral-reform

> I'm not sure if any party would be brave enough to implement a new system without a referendum

That wouldn't be brave it would be antidemocratic. You're got to win the argument first.

@strypey @ravensrod if that were how it had any chance of working, I would agree 100%. But in real life, that just doesn't happen. At least not here in the UK. Perhaps it's different in NZ?

@statsguy
> But in real life, that just doesn't happen

See:

https://mastodon.nzoss.nz/@strypey/115652219925704504

@strypey @ravensrod There is an important distinction between party activists and ordinary voters. Nobody has to join a party, they just have to vote for one.

@statsguy
> There is an important distinction between party activists and ordinary voters

True, but not relevant.

@ravensrod

@strypey
OK, a few more thoughts.

First, some background context: obviously, UK politics are different from NZ politics.

It seems clear that you follow UK politics way more closely than I follow NZ politics, but even so, I wonder if you've appreciated just how dysfunctional UK politics is.

When you had Ardern as PM, she made quite an impression over here. Now, maybe we were looking at her through rose-tinted glasses, and she seemed different from where you are, but...

@strypey ...
the overwhelming impression we Brits had of her was that she was actually a good person who wanted to do her best for the benefit of the people of NZ.

This struck us as an utterly alien concept, and many Brits were insanely jealous of NZ. We invariably elect utterly dreadful people to lead us here, who largely look after only their own self interests, and we just didn't understand how you had managed to do things differently.

@strypey But as I say, I can't rule out there were some rose tinted glasses in play, and I'd be interested in your take on Ardern.

@strypey I think there at least are a couple of reasons why UK politics are so dreadful.

One is the role of the media. We have a very powerful media that massively influences how people vote, and they are very right wing. They are very good a getting people to vote against their own self interests.

I'm not sure if you followed just how much effort they put into discrediting Corbyn when he was Labour leader, but it was quite a thing to behold. Even some quite sensible people believed their lies

@strypey And another, to go back to one of the themes that got this chat going, is the role of FPTP. I assume you've read the "wrong lizard" passage from the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy books? If not, you should look it up forthwith.

The right are way better at exploiting that than the left are.

We also have substantial Russian interference with our politics, which, bizarrely, our government have refused to investigate. It seems unlikely that Brexit would have happened without it.

@strypey So you ask whether the political situation has changed since our last referendum on the voting system.

In many ways, it has changed greatly. Back then Labour and the Tories were the 2 dominant parties. Things are in massive flux at the moment, and we don't know where the pieces are going to land, but it seems very possible that the next election will mainly be a battle between Reform on the right and the Greens on the left.

But...

@strypey That's just the players changing. The system is still broken.

I am sure that were there to be another referendum on the voting system, the media would be pushing hard to maintain FPTP, because it works well for the right.

And probably voters would go along with it.

Could I be wrong about that? Yes, absolutely I could, and I hope I am, but I am not optimistic.

@strypey So, back to YP and why I think they are dangerous.

You mention a possible future in which they and other parties on the left all cooperate with each other.

If that were how it played out, then I would welcome YP into the political fold. But I really can't see that happening. The left just doesn't have a great track record of doing it.

Let's go back to the 2019 election. It was a pivotal moment in UK politics. We were still in the EU at that point.

@strypey We were on our way out, but at that stage, it was reversible, and in any case, even if we did leave, we could have absolutely changed the terms on which we did so, potentially avoiding the damaging hard Brexit we ended up with.

Labour and the Lib Dems were the main opposition parties, and were both opposed to a hard Brexit (well, Labour was internally divided on that one, but opposition to a hard Brexit was a majority view in the party).

Greens were not a significant force at the time

@strypey Reform UK (called The Brexit Party at the time) was starting to become a significant force, but hadn't made the kind of inroads they have now.

And here's the thing: Labour and the Lib Dems fought against each other in almost all constituencies.

The Brexit Party only stood candidates in seats that the Tories had no chance of winning anyway.

And the result was that although Labour got more votes then than Starmer did last year, the Tories won a huge majority.

@strypey

Now in last year's election, Reform UK stood candidates in almost all constituencies, massively splitting the right wing vote, allowing Labour to win easily despite their reduced vote share.

(Of course Labour is now a party of the right as well, but that's another story).

This just shows how cooperation, or the lack of it, between like minded parties is absolutely everything in our system.

@strypey So when I hear about another party being formed on the left, it makes my heart sink.

A few years ago, I'd probably have had a different response. As I said, the Greens were not a significant force in 2019, but they have made massive gains in popularity in recent years. They are now the most serious looking party on the left.

And I would really love it if we could have just 1 party on the left rather than splitting the vote again.

@strypey The right fucked it all up big time last year by allowing their vote to be split down the middle.

I don't think they'll make that mistake again.

In fact look what's in the news today.

https://www.ft.com/content/ecf577aa-7049-4f72-bdd0-ec566accae33

@strypey So unless the left can put their support behind a single party, Farage is going to be our next PM.

Now, why does it have to be the Greens?

Simply because they are the current incumbent. No other reason. I would have given a different answer in 2019, but this is where we are in 2025.

So I hope that clarifies my thinking on this.

@strypey Oh, and one more thought: the idea that Farage could be our next PM is really not just a "bogeyman".

Reform UK is the bookies' odds-on favourite to win the next election

https://www.ladbrokes.com/en/sports/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/uk-next-general-election/245440619/main-markets

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@statsguy Yes I followed the treatment of Corbyn. Yes I understand the attack dog role the news media played (even supposedly "left" outlets like the Guardian, which are liberal, not left).

Yes, it's a rose-tinted view to think things work any differently here. Our political system is based on the UK system. Our system, like yours has been influenced by US-driven corporatism ("neoliberalism", "the Washington consensus", whatever you want to call it). The 2 remain fairly similar.

(2/?)

He was no Corbyn, but David Cunliffe similarly led NZ Labour to a massively increased vote share with a leftward policy shift, after less than a year in the job. They got within a hair's breadth of winning in 2014, but turfed him out as leader, supposedly because they didn't win.

While Hipkins singlehandedly tanked Labour's vote in 2023, with his centre-right captain's calls against tax reform, halving their 2020 share of the vote. Yet he's still leader and doing it all again for 2026 🤦‍♂️

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I'm familiar with the role of the Lib Dems in the UK as well. It was foolish to see Lim Dems as anything other than a Trojan Horse for the centre-right.

They're seem pretty similar to United Future, a "centrist" party who supported both red and blue NZ governments in the 2000s-10s. NZ Labour were foolish to do a deal with them, and they similarly acted to block progressive policy when Labour were in power (notably on drug law reform), and help the Nats stay in power whenever possible.

(4/?)

It's true that a big difference between UK and NZ systems is that we have proportional representation. But the particular system we got - MMP with a 5% threshold to get representation - is about as close to FPP as you can get while still having PR. In most cases we still get a right-wing government, whether blue or red, the Little/ Ardern/ Robertson period being a notable exception.

If we were campaigning for PR now, I'd support STV over MMP, for a range of reasons I'm happy to go into.

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So what's my take on Ardern? She was parachuted into the leadership as a compromise candidate, during a period when the left of NZ Labour was ascendant. She was a very effective public communicator, but a policy vacuum, who would have done just as good a spokesperson job as a CEO shilling corporatist talking points.

Her lack of policy depth manifested itself in things like the Christchurch Call, where she formed a talkshop with the fox about the problems in the social media henhouse.

(6/?)

The real power behind the throne during Arderns reign was finance minister Grant Robertson. This is frequently the case in NZ politics. It was in the 1980s Labour and 1990s National regimes too, and it certainly seems to be the case at the moment.

I met Robertson while Labour were still in opposition and he told me he thinks a UBI is inevitable. I genuinely believe he would have done it if the pandemic hadn't pushed everything else onto the backburner in 2020.

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It's a crying shame that Ardern stood down in 2023. An announcement that Labour's corporatist rump took advantage of to push Hipkins (our Sir Stammer) as leader, and sideline Robertson (and David Parker).

This - and no doubt the internal ructions leading up to it - prevented the Labour left from acting on the mandate they got in 2020 (an unprecedented 50% of the vote in an MMP election). Delaying the transformation away from corporatist BAU, at least until we get rid of Hipkins.

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Which puts the NZ left in an awful bind. It seems it will take another Labour loss to convince the party to dump Hipkins, and the dopey centre-right with left-flavoured sprinkles he represents. But that leaves us with another 3 years of the coalition of chaos feeding the walls into the fire and telling us that'll keep us warm.

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Or Labour wins, and we get almost the same thing from a government led by Hipkins. Who has already pretty much ruled out reversing most of the horrific shit the current coalition has done in the last 2 years. But because the corporatists in power wear red blazers not blue, the public blames the left instead of the right. Putting off any possibility of a progressive government for another decade.

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I hope the Labour left are sharpening their knives and planning to roll either Hipkins, or Barbara Edmondson as prospective finance minister. Before the election campaign kicks into high geat.

Or that left-leaning voters disillusioned with Labour finally realise they have choices beyond the NatLab binary. The NZ Greens seem like the best option from where I'm sitting. But TPM have good policy despite their internal shitfights, and even TOP look more progressive than Labour right now.

(11/?)

Anyway, coming back to the UK situation, the reality of FPP is that an election is *not* one big national contest. It's made up of many small contests. IMHO that's a good thing, and why I support STV over MMP.

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To make hay under FPP, progressives in each electorate need to build local alliances, and *talk* to each other. Figure out which progressive candidate has the best chance of beating the candidates on the right, *regardless* of party affiliations in either case.

In one electorate, a Labour candidate may be one of the right's candidates, in another electorate a rare progressive Labour candidate might be the best shot at beating the Tories and Deform.

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In the shifting sands of the current UK political situation, being absurdly partisan about party affiliations is not going to help. The focus needs to be how to defeat as many regressive candidates as possible, and elect as many progressive candidates as possible. Then leave it to the MPs you've got elected to figure out how to put a (hopefully progressive) government together.

If you don't trust them to do that, maybe representative politics is not what you're after?

@statsguy
> In fact look what's in the news today

Seems like this supports my argument more than yours. If the Tories and Deform can work together across party lines against Labour, why can't the left parties do the same against the lot of them?

@strypey You make some interesting points that deserve a considered reply, but it's past my bedtime and I'm tired. I'll try to give you a sensible reply in the morning. In the meantime, thanks for a thought provoking discussion

@statsguy
> thanks for a thought provoking discussion

Same! I enjoy and learn from thinking collectively through open-minded discussion, and while I don't get that here all the time, I really love it when it happens : )

@ravensrod

@strypey So were we Brits all wrong about Ardern then? Was she not a good person after all, but just as corrupt and self serving as any of our politicians?

@statsguy
> Was she not a good person after all, but just as corrupt and self serving as any of our politicians?

The truth - as so often the case - is likely somewhere in the middle. I think she was a lot like David Lange; a genuinely caring person, and a great public communicator, but a bit of an empty vessel.

With a finance minister like Douglas, Arden's govt could have been as bad as the current one. Ardern, like Lange, would have been concerned by this but no clue what to do about it.

@strypey Because the right have historically been very good at it, and the left have historically been very bad at it. The split in the right vote at the 2024 election was an anomaly.

@statsguy
2 things.

1) if the future is a rehash of the recent past (particularly the last 40-50 years), we're fucked. Excuse the harsh language but it's the only word strong enough to make the point.

2) one reason the left have struggled is an inability to get that hating social conservatives (more than we do) doesn't make centre-right liberals leftists. That was clear with Labour and the war criminal Blair, it's equally clear with Stammer.

But now, a big shift in coalitions is underway.

@strypey I definitely think it's true that we're fucked. Whatever happens with politics (and I suspect that will be nothing good), climate change is going to fuck us either way.

@statsguy
> I definitely think it's true that we're fucked

I admire your stoicism.