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> United States and Israel have urged Iran to agree to a ceasefire

BEGGED, THE WORD YOU ARE LOOKING FOR IS BEGGED

> Netanyahu is said to be considering what some describe as a “last-resort option.”
> implicit reference to the potential use of nuclear capabilities

I think they might be dumb enough to do it. Strategically speaking, this is the dumbest fucking idea on the planet. Tehran is where all of the Iranian libshits live, the extremists live in the mountains. Vaporizing the libshits will have NO EFFECT on combat operations, but it will unite the Muslim world.

> Bahrain destabilized, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia now find themselves within striking distance

@lain probably ought to catch a flight... Come visit us in France (that offer is serious)

> Yesterday’s coalition bombing campaign, intended as a show of force, appears to have had little effect.
> Instead of deterring Iranian advances, the conflict has intensified.

Vaporizing libshits in Tehran, we talked about this.

> China has deployed an intelligence vessel off the coast of Oman

LOL, Chinaman troll hard.

@cjd @lain This might be the dumbest shit I've read today.

@cjd
Please god let the nukes fly I want the redditors to cry harder
@lain

I'm just saying to @lain it's better safe than sorry. I don't see you packing your bags to fly to Tel Aviv, being in the gulf is not something I'd recommend right now.

Like, 3 or 4 years ago when RU/UA was hot, I bought a bottle of champaign as kind of a joke "we'll drink it when they drop the bomb". At that time, we lived pretty close to Paris, so it was a bit Dr. Strangelove humor...

Well, that bottle has followed us to the countryside, and it's still sitting in the fridge, it's kind of taken on a life of it's own, sitting and waiting...

@cjd
Fuck mate imma go get one. What brand so I can maybe try to make it an identical bottle?
@lain

Ah, apparently it's just a sparkling wine, not champaign region. I just grabbed something off the shelf because at the time it was more of a silly gag...

@cjd @lain Oh I agree with you there! But while the IRGC and Quds are still a danger, to be sure, they have already lost the war no matter how this plays out. The only question is how much damage the beast will do before it draws it's last breath.

@cjd @lain

The bigger question is what will London do now that we've removed their chess pieces from the board. They aren't going to go gentle in to the good night.

My take is this war that everyone will lose. Iran loses because it's converted into Afghanistan, US and Israel lose because they end up fighting "Afghanistan".

You're welcome to your predictions, that's mine.

@cjd @lain

Dubious. There's way too much oil on the line, and the Persians are far more advanced than the cave dwelling Afghanis have ever been. A deal will be struck, it's just a matter of who and when.

Basis of my prediction is that central govt of Iran is destroyed, or at least weakened enough that they will lose control over the fighters.

Disparate fighters will mean no possibility of centralized peace agreement, militant groups will gain credibility amongst one another by their willingness to fight more heroically. Ergo, no possible peace because nobody CAN call a peace.

Russia extremely interested in keeping this going indefinitely because it's quicksand for the US, and it runs oil to the moon which is very advantageous to them. China not thrilled at all, but it keeps the US off their back, and in any case they're not positioned to *stop* the fighting. Russia will throw them a lifeline which sweetens the deal. Probably they'll be given green light to take Taiwan.

Dynamics of the war will be decided by Moscow, who will choose which militant groups to throw their weight behind - and they have zero desire to stop this until the US empire has collapsed.

However I expect Israel will still survive because it is useful to too many countries.

If we assume that Israel's goal is primacy in the region, then they don't need a protracted conflict in Iran.

They can let the US get bogged down in whatever happens, and chaos only benefits in that scenario. Another Afghanistan for the US means the US is less powerful in the region.

If everyone loses, Israel wins.

Yes, I think some people thought about this.

Big open question is what is the US's will to fight.

War is extremely unpopular, more so than almost any war in the past (considering it's just the start). US govt is in a pickle because Gulf is central to their geopolitical power, but war is bordering on impossible.

@threalist @lain @cjd

"If we assume that Israel's goal is primacy in the region, then they don't need a protracted conflict in Iran."

This is retarded shit. While there may be a fringe splinter group of Israelis with dreams of Greater Israel, the overwhelming plurality want nothing to do with that. Most want West Bank and that's it. Normal Jews want nothing to do with governing over hostile muslims. Pointless.

@cjd @lain

You're leaving out a pretty big component and that's the surrounding Arab nations who aren't without the ability to roll in their and help with a "transition."

There will be many reprisals, and rightfully so after decades of tyranny, but that will eventually settle down just like it did in Iraq.

Russia has it's hands full in Ukraine. Sure, they'll try but the won't have much luck.

CCP NEEDS to have that oil flowing. Desperately. That's will be the biggest factor.

That doesn't contradict anything I said.

@threalist @lain @cjd

Your take couldn't possibly be more retarded. If everyone loses, Israel will get the blame and be bogged down with the US. It's clearly in their best interest to rapidly defeat the IRGC and Quds.

> the overwhelming plurality want nothing to do with that

Insert famous "Why of course the people don't want war" quote...

1. Iran is banking on Shia/Sunni unification & overthrow of the kings. Unclear if it will happen, but at the very least Muslims will never fight other Muslims on behalf of Jews.

2. "Russia has it's hands full in Ukraine" they can walk and chew gum. Providing weapons and intelligence to Iran doesn't implicate their infantry.

3. Russia can provide China enough oil to survive, and they'll take the offer because they're backed into a corner. To the extent Russia wants to keep this going, they lack the muscle to stop it.

@cjd @lain @threalist You honestly think Jews are chomping at the bit to rule over Muslims? If so you’re clearly drinking a very polluted kool-aid.

> If everyone loses, Israel will get the blame and be bogged down with the US


Everyone is currently losing. And you care about Public Relations, you probably want to reconsider when even Lindsay Graham thinks you've gone too far..

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/international-relations/lindsey-graham-criticizes-israel-for-striking-iranian-oil-facilities/ar-AA1XNRsR
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@cjd @lain

1) It isn’t Jews shooting missiles at them, and despite your low opinion of them, they’re smart enough to know that. And clearly Shia are perfectly willing to kill Sunnis. Do you think the Sunnis are too stupid to notice? Oh, and the Iran Iraq war was already them killing each other.

2) Russian resources are finite.

3) Russia would rather sell their oil at market prices than give it away to China. That’s bad news for egg rolls.

@threalist @lain @cjd

You just wish Israel and the US were losing. That doesn’t make it so, skippy.

Elites like territory, in Israel as in the rest of the world.

Anyway... just sent out v2 of my kernel patchset so now it's time to go plant some raspberry plants :]

@cjd @lain @threalist

" time to go plant some raspberry plants :]"

Sounds like an expansionist land grab.

Yeap, those weeds don't know what they have coming heh

14 strawberries in total, now 5 raspberries and 5 blackberries and that's it for berries this season...

North Korea: trigger happy, has allegedly offered to nuke Israel directly.

@cjd @lain @truthbait @threalist

I have blackberries. They really are wanna be "weeds". The key is to set a boundary - "thus far and no farther" and ruthlessly cut any sprouts that spring up from root propagation beyond the boundary.

Also beware of "berry bugs", aka "noseeums" that eat animal skin, but unlike the more symbiotic house mites that wait for you to shed said skin, they spit corrosive chemicals on your skin to dissolve it on demand. This causes nasty allergic reactions in addition to sores from the "bites". The key is to not scratch.

I'm considering allowing them to advance a little bit in one direction each year, and advancing my mowing line a little bit from the other direction so the row is constantly rejuvenating.

Currently they're just planted in landscaping cloth, gonna throw some woodchips over them to look nice and then when they send out shoots, I'll pass through cutting holes in the cloth and plant the shoots. At least for the first couple of years until they're established.

@cjd @lain @customdesigned @threalist

Bottle that jam and sell it here.

Those are just for making my yard a "fun place". Having stuff just growing random places and it's delicious, and you can just walk around munching... it's just irreplaceable.

However, I do have a couple of elderberries as an experiment to see if that works out. Supposedly dried elderberries are 30$ a pound.