The biggest problem is that we're looking at stagflation.
Stagflation at first looks like everyone' doing well because there's lots of money going around, but the problem is that there's lots of money going around. Look at the PPI and producers have been eating more and more price increases without passing them on fully, eventually everyone is going to realize that inflation is here to stay for a while, and then prices are going to rise and wages are going to rise, and the beast of inflation will be unleashed.
That being said, main street has been stagnating for 20 years. I think it'll be Wall Street that gets the real hit from the upcoming pain. Lots of zombie companies that look good for GDP but will die when they actually have to produce a good or service of value to pay off the debt service that's risen 300%.
The fed is pretending that it's doing an unprecedented amount to deal with this, but they aren't. Volker did an unprecedented amount. It hurt, but he brought inflation under control by causing big pain. Powell doesn't have the balls to fight inflation. He's going to keep nudging the needle until something breaks then he'll retreat right back into QE and zero or subzero interest rates because the people holding his leash will force him to.
Stagflation at first looks like everyone' doing well because there's lots of money going around, but the problem is that there's lots of money going around. Look at the PPI and producers have been eating more and more price increases without passing them on fully, eventually everyone is going to realize that inflation is here to stay for a while, and then prices are going to rise and wages are going to rise, and the beast of inflation will be unleashed.
That being said, main street has been stagnating for 20 years. I think it'll be Wall Street that gets the real hit from the upcoming pain. Lots of zombie companies that look good for GDP but will die when they actually have to produce a good or service of value to pay off the debt service that's risen 300%.
The fed is pretending that it's doing an unprecedented amount to deal with this, but they aren't. Volker did an unprecedented amount. It hurt, but he brought inflation under control by causing big pain. Powell doesn't have the balls to fight inflation. He's going to keep nudging the needle until something breaks then he'll retreat right back into QE and zero or subzero interest rates because the people holding his leash will force him to.
"In other news, some dude on Fediverse has created a new country that now has the #4 GDP on earth as everyone migrates their bank accounts to it."
Man, you gotta call the country something like "my balls lol" so that the #4 largest economy in the world can be my balls lol
Man, you gotta call the country something like "my balls lol" so that the #4 largest economy in the world can be my balls lol
I would prefer to see the democrats absolutely pantsed in the next election, totally trounced.
Not because I have any great love of the Republicans, but because the Democrats need to get their heads out of their asses and this is one of the few feedback mechanisms they might actually listen to.
Not because I have any great love of the Republicans, but because the Democrats need to get their heads out of their asses and this is one of the few feedback mechanisms they might actually listen to.
“1 in 5 counties, nationally, is disproportionately black and only represent 35% of the U.S. population […] these counties accounted for nearly half of COVID-19 cases and 58% of COVID-19 deaths.”
"Aggregated relative risk of death estimates for Black compared to the white population was 3.57 (95% CI: 2.84-4.48)"
Huh. Darn those Republicans and their predictions based on common sense.
"Aggregated relative risk of death estimates for Black compared to the white population was 3.57 (95% CI: 2.84-4.48)"
Huh. Darn those Republicans and their predictions based on common sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2FJ8xzcBdc
My friend's daughter loves this song, I call it "The welfare song".
"If I take a guy home with me tonight, it's none of your business!"
Yeah, none of my business until you come to my door (or the parliament) with your hand outstretched and some sob story about some loser you met at the bar.
Is this what it feels like getting old?
My friend's daughter loves this song, I call it "The welfare song".
"If I take a guy home with me tonight, it's none of your business!"
Yeah, none of my business until you come to my door (or the parliament) with your hand outstretched and some sob story about some loser you met at the bar.
Is this what it feels like getting old?
They did the same to gen x and millennials. "Please go back to being good little slaves who die at your desk."
I can relate to all that, the thing I can't find any way to wrap my head around without being condescending is the gender stuff.
"I might walk, talk, act, think, and be entirely indistinguishable from a young woman, but no I'm actually a nonbinary trans!" No you're not. You're binary af. Ffs...
"I might walk, talk, act, think, and be entirely indistinguishable from a young woman, but no I'm actually a nonbinary trans!" No you're not. You're binary af. Ffs...
It'd be like juicero -- overly complicated tech tech thing at the end of a normal but expensive and inefficient supply chain.
The most terrifying part is when you realize you're going to die soon, and nobody cares about your pop figure collection. That's when they start looking at other people's children and start trying to indoctrinate them desperately.
Nobody told my generation that they are going to be old far longer than they're going to be young. It's an important lesson because realizing that people might be less likely to squander their youth assuming it'll last forever.
I made 2 chapters in a book I wrote to my son warning about exactly that because people my age seemed to think they'd always be 20.
I made 2 chapters in a book I wrote to my son warning about exactly that because people my age seemed to think they'd always be 20.
The road is out ahead and nobody wants to hit the brakes and let go of the accelerator. One group wants to hit the gas, the other wants to remove the brakes. Both think it'll get them to their destination faster, but instead both options will just send us off the cliff faster.
UK bonds going basically no-bid. Japanese bonds going basically no-bid. It's only a matter of time until American bonds go no-bid. At that time, QE will be reintroduced, and inflation will be here to stay.
Leftists have attacked me for advocating for balanced budgets. They called me an idiot for saying interest rates can go up. They called me insane for thinking that no matter who was in charge they'd lose all their fancy social programs if the country was paying all its tax dollars into debt maintenance. Both sides of the political spectrum scoffed at me for calling for increased taxes and decreased spending.
Well... Just you wait. We haven't seen anything yet.
Leftists have attacked me for advocating for balanced budgets. They called me an idiot for saying interest rates can go up. They called me insane for thinking that no matter who was in charge they'd lose all their fancy social programs if the country was paying all its tax dollars into debt maintenance. Both sides of the political spectrum scoffed at me for calling for increased taxes and decreased spending.
Well... Just you wait. We haven't seen anything yet.
If the west continues its cultural suicide, its political power will be so little that they won't even bother lying anymore. It's only because the west finds slavery distasteful and was incredibly powerful that it's illegal everywhere.
In between my prediction of legalized slavery and your prediction of the end of all work, bet mine happens first.
There's been quite a few industrial revolutions since the first one. Many people believe we are in the fourth one.
The lesson we should have learned by now is that many promises of industrial revolutions are tempered by reality and practicality. It turns out that radium water was never going to make you healthier. You shouldn't fill your house with asbestos. You shouldn't have the kids roll in ddt. Most people shouldn't own a plane and if they do they won't keep it in their garage. There are industrial robots but other than roombas personal robots aren't even a pipe dream. Electrification did not bring enlightenment to the masses. Television didn't make everyone incredibly educated. The airplane did not end all war. The invention of atomic energy did not end all energy problems on earth. By default phone calls are voice only. Brutalist buildings didn't create utopian communities in the hallways.
I could go on forever. Reality doesn't work this way. Will certain jobs go away? Of course. I'm not sure there'll still be human cashiers in most stores by the time I die. I'm pretty sure there'll be human security guards though. Human cops, human therapists, human entertainers, and plenty of African slaves harvesting our cocoa.
In fact, it western society continues it's suicide, legal slavery is likely to return in Asia and Africa in the next century since abhoring slavery is a western value imposed upon the rest of the world.
The lesson we should have learned by now is that many promises of industrial revolutions are tempered by reality and practicality. It turns out that radium water was never going to make you healthier. You shouldn't fill your house with asbestos. You shouldn't have the kids roll in ddt. Most people shouldn't own a plane and if they do they won't keep it in their garage. There are industrial robots but other than roombas personal robots aren't even a pipe dream. Electrification did not bring enlightenment to the masses. Television didn't make everyone incredibly educated. The airplane did not end all war. The invention of atomic energy did not end all energy problems on earth. By default phone calls are voice only. Brutalist buildings didn't create utopian communities in the hallways.
I could go on forever. Reality doesn't work this way. Will certain jobs go away? Of course. I'm not sure there'll still be human cashiers in most stores by the time I die. I'm pretty sure there'll be human security guards though. Human cops, human therapists, human entertainers, and plenty of African slaves harvesting our cocoa.
In fact, it western society continues it's suicide, legal slavery is likely to return in Asia and Africa in the next century since abhoring slavery is a western value imposed upon the rest of the world.